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On the finite-sample power of modified Dickey-Fuller tests: The role of the initial condition

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  • Steven Cook

    (University of Wales Swansea)

Abstract

The relationship between the initial condition of time series data and the power of the Dickey-Fuller (1979) test and a number of modified Dickey-Fuller tests is examined. The results obtained extend the asymptotic analysis of Muller and Elliott (2003) by both focussing upon finite-sample power and examining previously unconsidered modified tests. It is shown that deviation of the initial condition from the underlying deterministic component of a time series increases the finite-sample power of the original Dickey-Fuller test, but removes the potential gains in power resulting from the use of modified tests. Interestingly, some variation in the properties of modified tests is noted. In addition to allowing evaluation of previous Monte Carlo studies of the finite-sample power of unit root tests, the results presented allow practitioners to select, and interpret the results of, alternative unit root tests in light of the initial condition of the data examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Cook, 2004. "On the finite-sample power of modified Dickey-Fuller tests: The role of the initial condition," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(11), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-04c40001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dong Wan Shin & Beong Soo So, 2001. "recursive Mean Adjustment for Unit Root Tests," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 595-612, September.
    2. Leybourne, S J, 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots Using Forward and Reverse Dickey-Fuller Regressions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 57(4), pages 559-571, November.
    3. Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, July.
    4. Heon Jin Park & Wayne A. Fuller, 1995. "Alternative Estimators And Unit Root Tests For The Autoregressive Process," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 415-429, July.
    5. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:37:p:1-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Steven Cook, 2005. "Estimating the autoregressive parameter: recursive mean adjustment and the initial condition," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 203-206.
    3. Peter E. Kennedy & John Elder, 2004. "More on F versus t tests for unit roots when there is no trend," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(37), pages 1-6.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward and reverse regressions;

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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