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Learning to deal with risk: what does reinforcement learning tell us about risk attitudes?

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  • Albert Burgos

    (Universidad de Murcia)

Abstract

People are generally reluctant to accept risk. In particular, people overvalue sure gains, relative to outcomes which are merely probable. At the same time, people are also more willing to accept bets when payoffs involve losses rather than gains. I consider how far adaptive learning can go in explaining these phenomena. I report simulations in which adaptive learners of the kind studied in Roth & Erev (1995, 1998) and Borgers & Sarin (1997, 2000) deal with a problem of repeated choice under risk where alternatives differ by a mean preserving spread. The simulations show that adaptive learning induces (on average) risk averse choices. This learning bias is stronger for gains than for losses. Also, risk averse choices are much more likely when one of the alternatives is a certain prospect. The implications of a learning interpretation of risk taking are explored.

Suggested Citation

  • Albert Burgos, 2002. "Learning to deal with risk: what does reinforcement learning tell us about risk attitudes?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 4(10), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-02d80010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Erev, Ido & Roth, Alvin E, 1998. "Predicting How People Play Games: Reinforcement Learning in Experimental Games with Unique, Mixed Strategy Equilibria," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 848-881, September.
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    3. Borgers, Tilman & Sarin, Rajiv, 2000. "Naive Reinforcement Learning with Endogenous Aspirations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(4), pages 921-950, November.
    4. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Loomes, Graham, 1998. "Probabilities vs Money: A Test of Some Fundamental Assumptions about Rational Decision Making," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 477-489, March.
    6. Roth, Alvin E. & Erev, Ido, 1995. "Learning in extensive-form games: Experimental data and simple dynamic models in the intermediate term," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 164-212.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Oyarzun, Carlos & Sarin, Rajiv, 2013. "Learning and risk aversion," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 196-225.
    3. Oyarzun, Carlos & Sarin, Rajiv, 2012. "Mean and variance responsive learning," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 855-866.

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    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

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