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Determinantes De Los Flujos Netos De Capital. Alguna Evidencia Para La Economia Argentina

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  • LANTERI, Luis N.

Abstract

El objetivo de este trabajo es investigar los determinantes de los flujos netos de capital para el caso de la economía Argentina. Se plantea un modelo de VEC estructural (SVEC) en relación con las causas de los flujos netos de capital y se emplean funciones de impulso-respuesta y análisis de descomposición de la varianza para determinar la reacción dinámica de los shocks de expulsión y atracción de estos flujos. A su vez, se evalúan los principales efectos de los flujos de capital y en particular sobre el producto doméstico y el tipo de cambio real. Los modelos estimados, que utilizan datos trimestrales para el período 1991:1-2008:4, muestran que los shocks en el producto y en las tasas de interés externas, así como los shocks de productividad domésticos y el riesgo país serían las fuerzas más importantes para explicar las variaciones de los flujos netos de capital hacia este país. The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of net capital flows to Argentine’s economy. An structural VEC model (SVEC) in relation with the causes of capital flows is developed, and impulse response and variance decomposition analyses are used to determine the dynamic reaction of shocks to push and pull factors on net capital flows. In turn, the paper evaluates the main effects of capital flows and particularly on the domestic product and the real exchange rate. Estimating of the models using quarterly data for the period 1991:1-2008:4 show that shocks to foreign output, international interest rates, domestic productivity and country risk would be the most important forces explaining the variations in net capital flows to this country.

Suggested Citation

  • LANTERI, Luis N., 2010. "Determinantes De Los Flujos Netos De Capital. Alguna Evidencia Para La Economia Argentina," Estudios Economicos de Desarrollo Internacional, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 10(1), pages 57-84.
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:eedein:v:10:y2010:i:10_3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Flujos netos de capital; Factores de expulsión y de atracción; Modelos de SVEC; Net capital flows; Push and Pull factors; SVEC models.;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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