Bilateral Relationship between Consumption and GDP in Mexico and the USA: A Comment
This article presents a critical appraisal of three different econometric techniques commonly employed to analyze causal relationships among economic series. Our results indicate that the empirical application of the Granger causality test, the Engle-Granger cointegration test and the Hausman test for causality performed with small samples suffers severe size distortions, and therefore that the results should be taken with caution. Furthermore, we show that these tests produce better results if the series are differentiated. Our results are applied to the series for consumption and GDP in Mexico and the US and suggest that these series are cointegrated in the case of the US only (causality and cointegration are different). We comment upon these results in relation to the conclusions of Guisan (2004), and other related studies, in which several methods are used to analyze the bilateral causality between consumption and GDP in Mexico and the US and where it was found that cointegration and Granger causality tests may fail to detect the true causal relationships.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 9 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.usc.es/economet/eaa.htm|
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.usc.es/economet/info.htm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1986.
"Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Understanding Spurious Regressions in Econometrics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 757, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2007.
"Testing for trend,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
614, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Gómez-Zaldívar Manuel, 2011.
"Testing for a Deterministic Trend When There is Evidence of Unit Root,"
Journal of Time Series Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-26, January.
- Gómez, Manuel & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2010. "Testing for a Deterministic Trend when there is Evidence of Unit-Root," MPRA Paper 58780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Manuel Gomez & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2008. "Testing for a Deterministic Trend when there is Evidence of Unit-Root," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200801, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance, revised Jun 2010.
- Noriega, Antonio E. & Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel, 2007.
"Spurious Regression and Trending Variables,"
58775, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonio E. Noriega & Daniel Ventosa-Santaularia, 2006. "Spurious Regression and Trending Variables," Department of Economics and Finance Working Papers EM200701, Universidad de Guanajuato, Department of Economics and Finance, revised Jan 2007.
- Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992.
"Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:9:y:2009:i:1_6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (M. Carmen Guisan)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.