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Determinants of Aggregate Imports in the GCC countries


  • Metwally, M.M.



The GCC countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates) depend heavily on the outside world for the supply of most of their needs. This is because of the relatively weak productive capacity of these economies, due to lack of resources, particularly labor, materials and water. The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of the fluctuations in oil exports on GCC spending on imports and in particular, to analyze the long-run relationship between the imports of each GCC member and the macroeconomic components of final expenditure (exports, government consumption, investment and private consumption) using Johansen multivariate cointegration analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Metwally, M.M., 2004. "Determinants of Aggregate Imports in the GCC countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 4(3).
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:4:y:2004:i:1_20

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Weisskoff, Richard, 1979. "Trade, Protection and Import Elasticities for Brazil," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(1), pages 58-66, February.
    2. Hughes, James J & Thirlwall, A P, 1977. "Trends and Cycles in Import Penetration in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 39(4), pages 301-317, November.
    3. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics,in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Khan, Mohsin S & Knight, Malcolm D, 1988. "Import Compression and Export Performance in Developing Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 70(2), pages 315-321, May.
    6. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1984. "How Reliable Are Simple, Single Equation Specifications of Import Demand?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(1), pages 120-128, February.
    7. Murray, Tracy & Ginman, Peter J, 1976. "An Empirical Examination of the Traditional Aggregate Import Demand Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 75-80, February.
    8. Metwally, M M & Tamaschke, H U, 1980. "Oil Exports and Economic Growth in the Middle East," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(3), pages 499-522.
    9. Dwight Phaup, E., 1981. "The demand for imports: Estimates of bilateral trade flows," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 97-115.
    10. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-125, May.
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    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • N75 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - Asia including Middle East


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