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Kreditklemme in Deutschland: Mythos oder Realität?

Listed author(s):
  • Burcu Erdogan
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    The availability of credit has been an issue of particular concern in Germany during the financial meltdown of 2008-2009. The contraction of loans, especially business loans, together with an ongoing recession led to growing fears about an upcoming shortage in lending. This study analyses the existence of a possible "credit crunch" in Germany until the end of 2009 by utilizing a disequilibrium model. The downward course of credit growth might be due to both weak demand for loans stemming from recession and supply side factors. Hence, we attempt to disentangle credit supply from demand with a disequilibrium model using quarterly data from Q1 1991 to Q4 2009. At the beginning of 2007, we observe a significant supply dependent credit shortage. Liquidity injected in the German banking system has helped to overcome credit tightening, especially towards the end of 2008.There is evidence that credit markets returned to equilibrium in Germany at the end of 2009. However, this equilibrium was still fragile. Any further deterioration of the equity capital of banks could have resulted in a supply-driven credit crunch, which would have circumvented an economic recovery. Die Kreditversorgung war im Zuge der Finanzkrise von 2008/2009 insbesondere in Deutschland Gegenstand großer Besorgnis. Die Verknappung von Krediten, besonders von Geschäftskrediten, in Kombination mit der anhaltenden Rezession führte zu einer wachsenden Furcht vor einer Kreditklemme. Dieser Beitrag analysiert die mögliche Existenz einer Kreditklemme für den Zeitraum bis Ende 2009 unter Verwendung eines Ungleichgewichtsmodells. Einer Abschwächung des Kreditwachstums können sowohl eine, rezessionsbedingt, schwache Kreditnachfrage, als auch angebotsseitige Faktoren zugrunde liegen. In diesem Beitrag werden für den Zeitraum zwischen 1991 und 2009 Kreditangebot und -nachfrage entflochten und getrennt voneinander analysiert. Das Modell weist auf eine vorübergehende angebotsseitige Verknappung der Kreditvergabe zu Beginn des Jahres 2007 hin. Die Zuführung von Liquidität in das deutsche Bankensystem im Rahmen der geldpolitischen Stützungsmaßnahmen der EZB hat jedoch schließlich geholfen, die Kreditverknappung zum Ende des Jahres 2008 zu überwinden. Des Weiteren zeigt die Schätzung des Ungleichgewichtsmodells, dass sich die Kreditmärkte zum Ende des Jahres 2009 wieder im Gleichgewicht befanden, auch wenn dieses Gleichgewicht fragil blieb. So hätte zu diesem Zeitpunkt eine weitere Verringerung des Eigenkapitals der deutschen Banken eine Kreditklemme mit entsprechenden Folgen für die konjunkturelle Erholung nach sich ziehen können.

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    Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

    Volume (Year): 79 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 27-37

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    Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:79-4-3
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    1. Maddala, G S & Nelson, Forrest D, 1974. "Maximum Likelihood Methods for Models of Markets in Disequilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 42(6), pages 1013-1030, November.
    2. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a "credit channel" for monetary policy?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
    3. Atish R. Ghosh & Swart R. Ghosh, 1999. "East Asia in the Aftermath; Was there a Crunch?," IMF Working Papers 99/38, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    5. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1995. "Is there a "credit channel" for monetary policy?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 63-77.
    7. Richard F. Syron, 1991. "Are we experiencing a credit crunch?," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jul, pages 3-10.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
    9. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, 1996. "A Credit Crunch? a Case Study of Finland in the Aftermath of the Banking Crisis," IMF Working Papers 96/135, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S., 1993. "How important is the credit channel in the transmission of monetary policy? : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 47-52, December.
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