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Amish fertility in the United States: Comparative evidence from the American Community Survey and Amish population registries

Author

Listed:
  • Lyman Stone

    (McGill University)

  • Cory Anderson

    (Pennsylvania State University)

  • Stephanie Thiehoff

    (University of Southampton)

Abstract

Background: Quantitative studies of Amish population dynamics have been methodologically constrained by difficulties identifying Amish in national surveys. If Amish could be reliably identified in, for example, the American Community Survey (ACS), researchers could leverage its rich variables to document both demographic outcomes and their social predictors. Objective: Cross-validate two methods for studying Amish populations by comparing fertility measures in the ACS with the Cross-sectional Amish Population and Environment Database-2010s (CAPED-2010s), a large administrative record database of North American Amish. Methods: We identify potential Amish ACS respondents through combinations of the attributes (1) Pennsylvania Dutch language use, (2) absence of household telephone, and (3) farming. We then calculate fertility measures derived from both the CAPED data and ACS data samples (2000–2021). This comparative method allows us to assess whether the two samples produce demographic comparable estimates. Results: Both methods produce remarkably consistent fertility statistics, including total fertility rates (just over six children), age-specific fertility rates (highest ages 20–29), and non-marital fertility (very low). Conclusions: The strong agreement between ACS- and CAPED-2010s-derived demographic estimates validates both approaches for studying Amish populations. Contribution: The ACS’s rich social variables complement CAPED-2010s’ comprehensive demographic coverage, demonstrating the credibility of two separate large databases for studies of the Amish. Comments: Based on #6875 after invitation to resubmit as descriptive finding

Suggested Citation

  • Lyman Stone & Cory Anderson & Stephanie Thiehoff, 2025. "Amish fertility in the United States: Comparative evidence from the American Community Survey and Amish population registries," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 52(26), pages 869-886.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:52:y:2025:i:26
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2025.52.26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lyman Stone, 2023. "Ultra-Orthodox fertility and marriage in the United States: Evidence from the American Community Survey," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 49(29), pages 769-782.
    2. Battaglia, Marianna & Chabé-Ferret, Bastien & Lebedinski, Lara, 2021. "Segregation, fertility, and son preference: the case of the Roma in Serbia," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(2), pages 233-260, June.
    3. Karen Benjamin Guzzo, 2022. "The Formation and Realization of Fertility Goals Among a US Cohort in the Post‐Recession Years," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 48(4), pages 991-1026, December.
    4. Anderson, Cory & Potts, Lindsey, 2020. "The Amish health culture and culturally sensitive health services: An exhaustive narrative review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    5. Karen Benjamin Guzzo & Sarah R. Hayford, 2023. "Evolving Fertility Goals and Behaviors in Current U.S. Childbearing Cohorts," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 49(1), pages 7-42, March.
    6. Martha J. Bailey & William J. Collins, 2011. "Did Improvements in Household Technology Cause the Baby Boom? Evidence from Electrification, Appliance Diffusion, and the Amish," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 189-217, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Anna Shetler & Cory Anderson, 2025. "Neighbors’ social attitudes predict variations in live births among the Amish of Holmes County, Ohio, United States," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 53(25), pages 773-820.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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