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The postulate of the three regimes of economic growth contradicted by data

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  • Ron W. NIELSEN

Abstract

The postulate of the three regimes of economic growth is contradicted by data. It is based on the interpretation of the historical gross domestic product (GDP) data. However, the analysis of the data shows that the interpretation is incorrect. The postulate is based on the assumption that there was a long period of stagnation followed by a sudden takeoff and then by a sustained economic growth. The analysis of the data shows that there was no stagnation, no takeoff and no three regimes of growth. The data show that the growth was hyperbolic and that it was gradually diverted to a slower trajectory. The postulate of the three regimes of growth is not supported by data and should be abandoned.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron W. NIELSEN, 2025. "The postulate of the three regimes of economic growth contradicted by data," Turkish Economic Review, EconSciences Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 99-125, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:cvv:journ2:v:12:y:2025:i:3:p:99-125
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ron W Nielsen, 2015. "Unified Growth Theory Contradicted by the GDP/cap Data," Papers 1511.09323, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2015.
    2. Ron W. Nielsen, 2015. "Mathematical Analysis of the Historical Economic Growth," Papers 1509.06612, arXiv.org, revised May 2016.
    3. Oded Galor, 2012. "The demographic transition: causes and consequences," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 6(1), pages 1-28, January.
    4. Oded Galor, 2011. "Unified Growth Theory and Comparative Development," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 2, pages 9-21, April-Jun.
    5. Artzrouni, Marc & Komlos, John, 1985. "Population Growth Through History and the Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Munich Reprints in Economics 3428, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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