IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cpp/issued/v15y1989i3p313-321.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Y a-t-il des biais systematiques dans les annonces budgetaires canadiennes? (With English summary.)

Author

Listed:
  • Jean Francois David
  • Eric Ghysels

Abstract

Every year the Canadian government makes up a budget for the forthcoming fiscal year. During the budget process, projections are made of expenditures and receipts contingent upon predictions of key macroeconomic variables. Naturally, one expects that the budget deficit or surplus actually realized will differ from what was initially announced. Neither of the two major protagonists in the budget decision-making process, namely the Legislative and Executive Branches of government, may have an interest in using truthful projections, however. The purpose of the paper is to find empirical regularities. It is found that (1) the difference between projected and realized budgets is substantial; and (2) that the differences are systematically related to publicly available information at the time of the budget announcement. The publicly available information contains key macroeconomic variables related to the electoral and legislative process. It is shown that the biases are fairly predictable at the time budget projections are announced.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Francois David & Eric Ghysels, 1989. "Y a-t-il des biais systematiques dans les annonces budgetaires canadiennes? (With English summary.)," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(3), pages 313-321, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:15:y:1989:i:3:p:313-321
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0317-0861%28198909%2915%3A3%3C313%3AYADBSD%3E2.0.CO%3B2-H
    Download Restriction: only available to JSTOR subscribers

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    2. Dufour, Jean-Marie, 1985. "Unbiasedness of Predictions from Etimated Vector Autoregressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(03), pages 387-402, December.
    3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    5. David, J-F. & Ghysels, E., 1989. "Y A-T-Il Des Biais Systematiques Dans Les Annonces Budgetaires Canadiennes?," Cahiers de recherche 8912, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    6. Jean Francois David & Eric Ghysels, 1989. "Y a-t-il des biais systematiques dans les annonces budgetaires canadiennes? (With English summary.)," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(3), pages 313-321, September.
    7. Ghysels, E., 1987. "The Political Economy of the Budget and Efficient Information Processing," Cahiers de recherche 8733, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    8. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1979. "The sampling distribution of forecasts from a first-order autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 241-261, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jean Francois David & Eric Ghysels, 1989. "Y a-t-il des biais systematiques dans les annonces budgetaires canadiennes? (With English summary.)," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(3), pages 313-321, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:15:y:1989:i:3:p:313-321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Prof. Werner Antweiler). General contact details of provider: http://economics.ca/cpp/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.