IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Y a-t-il des biais systematiques dans les annonces budgetaires canadiennes? (With English summary.)

  • Jean Francois David
  • Eric Ghysels

Every year the Canadian government makes up a budget for the forthcoming fiscal year. During the budget process, projections are made of expenditures and receipts contingent upon predictions of key macroeconomic variables. Naturally, one expects that the budget deficit or surplus actually realized will differ from what was initially announced. Neither of the two major protagonists in the budget decision-making process, namely the Legislative and Executive Branches of government, may have an interest in using truthful projections, however. The purpose of the paper is to find empirical regularities. It is found that (1) the difference between projected and realized budgets is substantial; and (2) that the differences are systematically related to publicly available information at the time of the budget announcement. The publicly available information contains key macroeconomic variables related to the electoral and legislative process. It is shown that the biases are fairly predictable at the time budget projections are announced.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: only available to JSTOR subscribers

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by University of Toronto Press in its journal Canadian Public Policy.

Volume (Year): 15 (1989)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 313-321

in new window

Handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:15:y:1989:i:3:p:313-321
Contact details of provider: Postal: University of Toronto Press Journals Division 5201 Dufferin Street Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3H 5T8
Web page:

Order Information: Web: Email:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Dufour, J.M., 1983. "Unbiasedness of Predictions From Estimated Vector Autoregressions," Cahiers de recherche 8330, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  2. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
  3. Ghysels, E., 1987. "The Political Economy of the Budget and Efficient Information Processing," Cahiers de recherche 8733, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  4. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1979. "The sampling distribution of forecasts from a first-order autoregression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 241-261, February.
  5. David, J-F. & Ghysels, E., 1989. "Y A-T-Il Des Biais Systematiques Dans Les Annonces Budgetaires Canadiennes?," Cahiers de recherche 8912, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en ├ęconomie quantitative, CIREQ.
  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  7. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpp:issued:v:15:y:1989:i:3:p:313-321. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Prof. Werner Antweiler)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.