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Y A-T-Il des Biais Systematiques Dans les Annonces Budgetaires Canadiennes?


  • David, J.F.
  • Ghysels, E.


Every year the Canadian government makes up a budget for the forthcoming fiscal year. During the budget process, projections are made of expenditures and receipts contingent upon predictions of key macroeconomic variables. Naturally, one expects that the budget deficit or surplus actually realized will differ from what was initially announced. Neither of the two major protagonists in the budget decision-making process, namely the Legislative and Executive Branches of government, may have an interest in using truthful projections, however. The purpose of the paper is to find empirical regularities. It is found that (1) the difference between projected and realized budgets is substantial; and (2) that the differences are systematically related to publicly available information at the time of the budget announcement. The publicly available information contains key macroeconomic variables related to the electoral and legislative process. It is shown that the biases are fairly predictable at the time budget projections are announced.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • David, J.F. & Ghysels, E., 1989. "Y A-T-Il des Biais Systematiques Dans les Annonces Budgetaires Canadiennes?," Cahiers de recherche 8912, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  • Handle: RePEc:mtl:montde:8912

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Boyer, Marcel & Moreaux, Michel, 1989. "Endogenous Rationing in a Differentiated Product Duopoly," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 877-888, November.
    2. Marcel Boyer & Michel Moreaux, 1988. "Rational Rationing in Stackelberg Equilibria," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 103(2), pages 409-414.
    3. repec:cor:louvrp:-536 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean Francois David & Eric Ghysels, 1989. "Y a-t-il des biais systematiques dans les annonces budgetaires canadiennes? (With English summary.)," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 15(3), pages 313-321, September.

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    Politique Budgetaire ; Analyse Statistique;


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