IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000174/010149.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

La medición del riesgo en eventos extremos. Una revisión metodológica en contexto

Author

Listed:
  • Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario

    ()

  • Ulloa Villegas, Inés Maria

    ()

Abstract

Resumen: En este documento se exploran varias metodologías para el cálculo del Valor en Riesgo (VeR)utilizadas actualmente en la regulación internacional y la administración de portafolios. Se exponen laslimitantes de las mismas y las posibles consecuencias de ignorarlas, ilustradas por la pasada crisis financiera global (2007-2009). Se estiman también medidas de pérdida esperada en las colas, basadas en la Teoría del Valor Extremo y se contrastan con las estimaciones del VeR con el fin de generar un ranking de riesgo entre varios mercados accionarios del mundo. El estudio se realiza para varios países en Latinoamérica y algunos países desarrollados. Se corrobora la lección ampliamente señalada por la literatura académica de que el VeR no es adecuado para la medición del riesgo en momentos en los cuales el mercado se enfrenta a choques extremos. De esa forma se resalta la necesidad de utilizar medidas más robustas enfocadas en las colas de la distribución para la medición del riesgo.Abstract: This paper reviews the basic methodologies for the estimation of Value at Risk (VaR) that are currently in use in international stock and financial market regulation and portfolio management. The main shortcomings of these methodologies are exposed and the direct consequences of ignoring these limitations are analyzed, the latter highlighted by the recent global financial crisis of 2007-2009. In addition, methodologies for the estimation of expected tail losses, based on the Extreme Value Theory, are examined. Both kinds of measures are contrasted with the aim to create a `risk ranking´ of different stock markets around the world. The study explores the major Latin American markets and some in developed countries. The lessons widely highlighted in the academic literature related to the shortcomings of VaR when markets face extreme events are corroborated. The paper concludes by stressing the need for more robust measures focused on the tails of the distribution in the measurement of risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Uribe Gil, Jorge Mario & Ulloa Villegas, Inés Maria, 2012. "La medición del riesgo en eventos extremos. Una revisión metodológica en contexto," REVISTA LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000174:010149
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://aprendeenlinea.udea.edu.co/revistas/index.php/lecturasdeeconomia/article/view/12812/11543
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xavier Freixas, 2010. "Post-crisis challenges to bank regulation," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 375-399, April.
    2. Bhattacharyya, Malay & Ritolia, Gopal, 2008. "Conditional VaR using EVT - Towards a planned margin scheme," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 382-395.
    3. Christoffersen, Peter, 2011. "Elements of Financial Risk Management," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780123744487.
    4. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Oscar Reinaldo Becerra Camargo, 2006. "Una Aproximación a La Dinámica de las Tasas de Interés de Corto Plazo en Colombia a través de Modelos GARCH Multivariados," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003694, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Christian Laux & Christian Leuz, 2010. "Did Fair-Value Accounting Contribute to the Financial Crisis?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 93-118, Winter.
    6. Luis Fernando Melo & Joan Camilo Granados, 2011. "Regulación y valor en riesgo," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 29(64), pages 110-177, July.
    7. Oscar Martínez A. & Jorge Mario Uribe Gil, 2008. "Una aproximación dinámica a la medición del riesgo de mercado para los bancos comerciales en Colombia," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 031, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    9. Peter Temin, 2010. "The Great Recession and the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 15645, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Rene M. Stulz, 2010. "Credit Default Swaps and the Credit Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(1), pages 73-92, Winter.
    11. Joseph E Stiglitz, 2009. "The Current Economic Crisis and Lessons for Economic Theory," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 281-296.
    12. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Valor en riesgo; pérdida esperada en la colas; teoría del valor extremo; mercados latinoamericanos; riesgos extremos;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000174:010149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laura Maria Posada Arboleda). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.