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La rigidez del gasto público brasileno a largo plazo

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  • Hernán Alejandro Roitbarg

Abstract

En el presente artículo se estudian los efectos económicos de la rigidez en el gasto público real de Brasil. La metodología utilizada se enfoca en el modelo de equilibrio general computado disenado por Lofgren (2000) y calibrado a partir de la matriz de contabilidad social de Brasil en 2013. Los equilibrios simulados se plantean para dos escenarios probables en 2033 con respecto a la vigencia o no de la Enmienda Constitucional n.º 95. El cálculo de las situaciones probables difiere en cuanto a las partidas de educación y salud. Los resultados complementan estudios de impacto existentes, observando un menor nivel de producto interno bruto, ingreso nacional disponible, ingreso factorial del trabajo y leves consecuencias para la configuración sectorial y del balance comercial.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernán Alejandro Roitbarg, 2018. "La rigidez del gasto público brasileno a largo plazo," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 37(66), pages 77-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000152:017184
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guilhoto, J. J. M. & Sesso Filho, U. A., 2005. "Estimação da Matriz Insumo-Produto a Partir De Dados Preliminares das Contas Nacionais [Estimation of input-output matrix using preliminary data from national accounts]," MPRA Paper 38212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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