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La indexación de los saldos hipotecarios y la crisis colombiana de final de siglo XX

  • Juan Esteban Carranza


El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar el impacto sobre el default hipotecario de la política que regulaba la indexación de los saldos hipotecarios durante la década de los noventa. Argumentamos en el artículo que la política introducida por las autoridades económicas colombianas durante los primeros años de la década, tuvo un efecto sustancial sobre la tasa de default hipotecario observada durante la crisis económica y financiera que ocurrió a finales de la década. Hacemos un análisis econométrico basado en un modelo de default óptimo y una muestra aleatoria de hipotecas vigentes entre 1997 y 2004. Los resultados implican que las variables más importantes en la determinación del default observado fueron los saldos de las hipotecas y los precios de los bienes raíces, mas no la caída del ingreso. Además, estimamos que aproximadamente la mitad del default observado entre las hipotecas iniciadas después de 1996 fue causado por la política de indexación de los saldos con la tasa de interés.

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Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): (May)

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Handle: RePEc:col:000090:008921
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  1. Salvador Navarro & Juan Esteban Carranza, 2011. "Identification of dynamic models with aggregate shocks with an application to mortgage default in Colombia," 2011 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Marc Hofstetter & Jorge Tovar & Miguel Urrutia, 2011. "Effects of a Mortgage Interest Rate Subsidy: Evidence from Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 37878, Inter-American Development Bank.
  3. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
  4. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
  5. Alejandro Badel & Mauricio Cárdenas, 2003. "La crisis de financiamiento hipotecario en Colombia: causas y consecuencias," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 7642, Inter-American Development Bank.
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