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Análisis del endeudamiento de los hogares colombianos

Author

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  • González Mario Alejandro

    ()

  • John Jairo León

    ()

Abstract

Este estudio analiza los determinantes del endeudamiento de los hogares colombianos en los últimos catorce años. A partir de un modelo simple de elección y con base en los datos de las cuentas financieras del Banco de la República y de la muestra aleatoria codificada de los renglones de las declaraciones correspondientes a los contribuyentes personas naturales declarantes del impuesto sobre la renta para los períodos gravables 1993 a 2004, se determinan las principales variables que afectan la decisión de endeudamiento. Los resultados sugieren que el colateral, los niveles de deuda anterior y la carga financiera son los determinantes del endeudamiento de los hogares en Colombia y, por tanto, las acciones de política deben enfocarse en vigilar el patrimonio de los hogares y la dinámica de la tasa de interés para evitar una crisis de repudio similar a la de 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • González Mario Alejandro & John Jairo León, 2007. "Análisis del endeudamiento de los hogares colombianos," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:004552
    as

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    File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/revistadys/Articulo60_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sarah Brown & Gaia Garino & Karl Taylor & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2005. "Debt and Financial Expectations: An Individual- and Household-Level Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(1), pages 100-120, January.
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    3. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    4. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(3), pages 615-643.
    5. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    6. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2005. "Household Debt and Financial Assets: Evidence from Great Britain, Germany and the United States," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    7. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Endeudamiento; balance de los hogares; racionamiento de crédito; modelos de datos panel dinámicos.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D13 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Production and Intrahouse Allocation
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution

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