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Análisis del Endeudamiento de los Hogares Colombianos

  • Mario alejandro González

    ()

  • John Jairo León

    ()

Este documento analiza los determinantes del endeudamiento de los hogares en Colombia en los últimos 14 años. A partir de un modelo simple de elecci´on y con base en los datos de las Cuentas Financieras del Banco de la Rep´ublica y de la muestra aleatoria codificada de los renglones de las declaraciones correspondientes a los contribuyentes personas naturales declarantes del impuesto sobre la renta para los períodos gravables 1993 a 2004, se determinan las principales variables que afectan la decisión de endeudamiento. Los resultados sugieren que el colateral, los niveles de deuda anterior y la carga financiera son los determinantes del endeudamiento de los hogares en Colombia y, por lo tanto, las acciones de política deben enfocarse en vigilar el patrimonio de los hogares y la dinámica de la tasa de interés para evitar una crisis de repudio similar a aquella de 1999.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 452.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:452
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  1. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor & Gaia Garino & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2003. "Debt and financial expectations: an individual and household level analysis," Discussion Papers in Economics 03/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2004.
  2. Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, Cheng, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of dynamic models using panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 47-82, January.
  3. Blundell, R. & Bond, S., 1995. "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models," Economics Papers 104, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  4. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2008. "Household debt and financial assets: evidence from Germany, Great Britain and the USA," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(3), pages 615-643.
  5. Arellano, Manuel & Bond, Stephen, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 277-97, April.
  6. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
  7. Sarah Brown & Karl Taylor, 2005. "Household Debt and Financial Assets: Evidence from Great Britain, Germany and the United States," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/5, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
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