Bankruptcy Prediction for Chilean Companies
This paper compares statistical and option-based models of financial instability for the group of listed Chilean companies. Statistical models have the proper fit, although the peculiar history of bankruptcies in the period of analysis, namely their concentration in the early period, questions their usefulness as a predictive tool. In models based on option theory, on the other hand, average bankruptcy probabilities appear to be highly correlated with bank risk indicators, and precedes them by up to three quarters. Overall, this first measuring effort is moderately successful, but reveals a number of paths worth exploring.
Volume (Year): 11 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004.
"Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates,"
Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings
745, Econometric Society.
- Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 747, Econometric Society.
- Darrell Duffie & Ke Wang, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction with Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 10743, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005.
"Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates,"
CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CARF F-Series CARF-F-047, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hsiao, C. & Pesaran, M.H., 2004.
"‘Random Coefficient Panel Data Models’,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0434, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Cheng Hsiao & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Random Coefficient Panel Data Models," IEPR Working Papers 04.2, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Cheng Hsiao & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Random Coefficient Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 1233, CESifo Group Munich.
- Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2004. "Random Coefficient Panel Data Models," IZA Discussion Papers 1236, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-124, January.
- Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
- Tudela, Merxe & Garry Young, 2003.
"A Merton Model Approach to Assessing the Default Risk of UK Public Companies,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
207, Royal Economic Society.
- M. Tudela & G. Young, 2005. "A Merton-Model Approach To Assessing The Default Risk Of Uk Public Companies," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(06), pages 737-761.
- Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies," Bank of England working papers 194, Bank of England.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Felipe Zurita, 2008. "La Predicción de la Insolvencia de Empresas Chilenas," Documentos de Trabajo 336, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchec:v:11:y:2008:i:1:p:93-116. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Claudio Sepulveda)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.