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ifo Konjunkturprognose 2003: Nur zögerliche Belebung

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Werner Sinn
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Wolfgang Meister
  • Oscar-Erich Kuntze
  • Jan-Egbert Sturm

Abstract

Am 19. Dezember stellte das ifo Institut im Rahmen seines vorweihnachtlichen Pressegesprächs seine Prognose für das Jahr 2003 vor. Die Expansion der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Produktion dürfte im ersten Quartal 2003 nahezu zum Stillstand kommen. Erst im weiteren Jahresverlauf ist nach und nach mit einer Belebung zu rechnen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt wird das Niveau nur um 1,1% übertreffen. Das Verbraucherpreisniveau wird im Prognosezeitraum annähernd stabil bleiben, die Inflationsrate dürfte im Jahr 2003 erneut 1,3% betragen. Der Tiefpunkt der Arbeitsmarktentwicklung in Deutschland ist noch nicht erreicht. Die Erwerbstätigkeit wird bis zur Jahresmitte 2003 noch sinken, und die Arbeitslosenzahl dürfte im Jahrsdurchschnitt auf 4,22 Millionen steigen. Somit wird die Arbeitslosenquote bei 9,9% liegen. Der staatliche Finanzierungssaldo wird im Jahr 2003 auf 60 Mrd. € (2,8% des Bruttoinlandsprodukts) zurückgehen.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Werner Sinn & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Wolfgang Meister & Oscar-Erich Kuntze & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2002. "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2003: Nur zögerliche Belebung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(24), pages 22-44, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:55:y:2002:i:24:p:22-44
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Michael Reutter, 2000. "Die Mindestinflationsrate für die Euro-Länder," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(35-36), pages 23-26, January.
    2. Hans-Werner Sinn & Christian Holzner & Wolfgang Meister & Wolfgang Ochel & Martin Werding, 2002. "Aktivierende Sozialhilfe - Ein Weg zu mehr Beschäftigung und Wachstum," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(09), pages 03-52, May.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Zwei Indikatoren zur Beurteilung der Geldpolitik der EZB," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(05), pages 47-49, October.
    4. Hans Günter Russ, 2002. "Kreditnachfrage schwach, aber auch Kreditvergabe restriktiver," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(21), pages 28-29, November.
    5. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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