Central bank´s value at risk and financial crises: An application to the 2001 Argentine crisis
Blejer and Schumacher (1999) were the first to suggest that Central Bank’s Value at Risk (VaR), a widely used composite measure of potential portfolio losses in the corporate sector, could be used as an early warning indicator of financial crises. We extend their research in two aspects. First, we develop an operational model to calculate Central Bank’s VaR and illustrate the methodology using data from the recent financial crisis in Argentina. Second, we compare the predictive performance of diverse measures based on the VaR approach to that of another well known early warning system, the signals approach, and several univariate leading indicators. The results reveal a strong relationship between the measures proposed and the crisis. Furthermore, one of the measures provides higher accuracy and announces the probability of a crisis sooner than the competing indicators.
Volume (Year): IX (2006)
Issue (Month): (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (5411) 6314-3000
Fax: (5411) 4314-1654
Web page: http://www.cema.edu.ar/publicaciones/jae.html
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pownall, Rachel A. J. & Koedijk, Kees G., 1999. "Capturing downside risk in financial markets: the case of the Asian Crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 853-870, December.
- Alexandra Lai, 2002. "Modelling Financial Instability: A Survey of the Literature," Staff Working Papers 02-12, Bank of Canada.
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997.
"Leading Indicators of Currency Crises,"
IMF Working Papers
97/79, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," MPRA Paper 6981, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998.
"Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1999. "Currency and Banking Crises: The Early Warnings of Distress," IMF Working Papers 99/178, International Monetary Fund.
- Cox, John C & Ingersoll, Jonathan E, Jr & Ross, Stephen A, 1985. "A Theory of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(2), pages 385-407, March.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996.
"Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: an empirical treatment," International Finance Discussion Papers 534, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ho, Lan-Chih & Burridge, Peter & Cadle, John & Theobald, Michael, 2000. "Value-at-risk: Applying the extreme value approach to Asian markets in the recent financial turmoil," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 249-275, May.
- Giovannetti, G., 1990. "A Survey of Recente Empirical Tests of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis," Papers 1, Roma "la Sapienza" - Scienze Economiche.
- Gregory R. Duffee, 1996.
"Estimating the price of default risk,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
96-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:9:y:2006:n:2:p:381-402. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Valeria Dowding)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.