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La nouvelle politique de voisinage de l'Union européenne. Une estimation des potentiels de commerce

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  • Nicolas Péridy

Abstract

This article is devoted to the assessment of the new eu neighbourhood policy, relying on the calculation of trade potentials. It is based on the new theoretical developments of gravity models, concerning in particular trade costs. The model is subsequently estimated by using two estimators : Hausman and Taylor (static) and Arellano, Bond and Bover (dynamic). This allows the calculation of trade potentials. The main result indicates that most of the new neighbours enjoy a significant trade potential with the eu. However, this potential is limited for some countries which have already liberalized their trade with the eu. These are mainly Israel as well as candidate countries (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey), in addition to Maghreb countries. Another result shows that the trade potential does not differ very much whether we assume or not the implementation of the “acquis communautaire” with the new neighbours. Classification JEL : F14, F15, F17

Suggested Citation

  • Nicolas Péridy, 2006. "La nouvelle politique de voisinage de l'Union européenne. Une estimation des potentiels de commerce," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 57(4), pages 727-746.
  • Handle: RePEc:cai:recosp:reco_574_0727
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004. "Trade Costs," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
    2. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Egger, Peter, 2004. "On the Problem of Endogenous Unobserved Effects in the Estimation of Gravity Models," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 19, pages 182-191.
    5. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    6. Péridy Nicolas, 2005. "Trade Prospects of the New EU Neighborhood Policy: Evidence from Hausman and Taylor's Models," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-27, March.
    7. Feenstra, Robert C, 2002. "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 491-506, December.
    8. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
    10. Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, February.
    11. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    12. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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