La nouvelle politique de voisinage de l'Union européenne. Une estimation des potentiels de commerce
This article is devoted to the assessment of the new eu neighbourhood policy, relying on the calculation of trade potentials. It is based on the new theoretical developments of gravity models, concerning in particular trade costs. The model is subsequently estimated by using two estimators : Hausman and Taylor (static) and Arellano, Bond and Bover (dynamic). This allows the calculation of trade potentials. The main result indicates that most of the new neighbours enjoy a significant trade potential with the eu. However, this potential is limited for some countries which have already liberalized their trade with the eu. These are mainly Israel as well as candidate countries (Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey), in addition to Maghreb countries. Another result shows that the trade potential does not differ very much whether we assume or not the implementation of the “acquis communautaire” with the new neighbours. Classification JEL : F14, F15, F17
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