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Modelling soil organic carbon changes on arable land under climate change - a case study analysis of the Kočín farm in Slovakia

Author

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  • Juraj Balkovič

    (Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, Bratislava, Slovak Republic
    Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, Bratislava, Slovak republic)

  • Erwin Schmid

    (Institute for Sustainable Economic Development, University of Bodenkultur Wien, Vienna, Austria)

  • Rastislav Skalský

    (Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, Bratislava, Slovak republic)

  • Martina Nováková

    (Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, Bratislava, Slovak republic)

Abstract

We have estimated soil organic carbon and crop yield changes under distinct climate change scenarios for the Kočín farm in Slovakia. Two regional climate change scenarios, i.e. the A2 and B2 SRES emission scenarios, and a reference climate scenario have been included into the bio-physical process model EPIC to simulate the effects on the topsoil organic carbon stocks and crop yields for the period of 2010-2050. In addition, we have used the data from several fields of the Kočín farm including the soil data, crop rotational and management data as well as topographical data. The topsoil organic carbon stocks show a decreasing trend for the period of 2010-2050. Among all crop rotation systems and soil profiles, the losses over the period are 9.0%, 9.5%, and 10.7% for the reference, A2, and B2 climate scenarios, respectively. Increasing temperatures accelerate the decomposition of the soil organic carbon particularly when soils are intensively managed. The soil organic carbon changes are crop-rotation specific, which is partly due to the climate scenarios that affect the crop biomass production differently. This is shown by comparison of the crop yields. We conclude that EPIC is capable to reliably simulate effects of climate change on soil organic carbon and crop yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Juraj Balkovič & Erwin Schmid & Rastislav Skalský & Martina Nováková, 2011. "Modelling soil organic carbon changes on arable land under climate change - a case study analysis of the Kočín farm in Slovakia," Soil and Water Research, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 6(1), pages 30-42.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlswr:v:6:y:2011:i:1:id:29-2010-swr
    DOI: 10.17221/29/2010-SWR
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jaroslava Sobocká & Juraj Balkovič & Milan Lapin, 2007. "A CENTURY 5 model using for estimation of soil organic matter behaviour at predicted climate change," Soil and Water Research, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 2(1), pages 25-34.
    2. Jones, C. A. & Dyke, P. T. & Williams, J. R. & Kiniry, J. R. & Benson, V. W. & Griggs, R. H., 1991. "EPIC: An operational model for evaluation of agricultural sustainability," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 341-350.
    3. Stockle, Claudio O. & Williams, Jimmy R. & Rosenberg, Norman J. & Jones, C. Allan, 1992. "A method for estimating the direct and climatic effects of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide on growth and yield of crops: Part I--Modification of the EPIC model for climate change analysis," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 225-238.
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