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Industrial Sector Mode-Locking and Business Cycle Formation

Listed author(s):
  • Selover David D.

    ()

    (Old Dominion University)

  • Jensen Roderick V.

    (Wesleyan University)

  • Kroll John

    (Old Dominion University)

This study investigates the synchronization of business cycles in different sectors of the economy. Business cycles in different industries or sectors have a tendency to synchronize with one another in what appears to be a national business cycle, yet trade between sectors may not be strong enough for one sector to "drive" business cycle fluctuations in another sector. How are these sectors synchronized? This study suggests that the national business cycle results from a "mode-locking" phenomenon between different sectors, a nonlinear process through which weak coupling between oscillating systems (sectors) tends to synchronize the fluctuations between the oscillating systems (sectors). Simulations, statistical analysis, and spectral analysis are used to attempt to verify this hypothesis. Investigation reveals a moderate amount of econometric support for the sectoral mode-locking hypothesis of business cycle formation.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 1-39

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:7:y:2003:i:3:n:2
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  1. Selover, David D. & Jensen, Roderick V., 1999. "'Mode-locking' and international business cycle transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 591-618, February.
  2. Anderson, Heather M. & Ramsey, James B., 2002. "U.S. and Canadian industrial production indices as coupled oscillators," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 33-67, January.
  3. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1987. "Sectoral vs. Aggregate Shocks in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 333-336, May.
  4. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
  5. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc27-1.
  6. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  7. J. Maurice Clark, 1917. "Business Acceleration and the Law of Demand: A Technical Factor in Economic Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25, pages 217-217.
  8. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
  9. Victor Zarnowitz, 1999. "Theory and History behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 69-90, Spring.
  10. Hillinger, Claude & Weser, Thilo, 1988. "The aggregation problem in business cycle theory," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 37-40, March.
  11. Wesley Clair Mitchell, 1927. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting"," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles: The Problem and Its Setting, pages -23 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Victor Zarnowitz, 1999. "Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?," NBER Working Papers 7010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April.
  14. Michael Horvath, 1998. "Cyclicality and Sectoral Linkages: Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(4), pages 781-808, October.
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