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Going for the Green: A Simulation Study of Qualifying Success Probabilities in Professional Golf

Listed author(s):
  • Connolly Robert A.

    (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

  • Rendleman Richard J.

    (Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth and University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill)

Each year, over 1,300 golfers attempt to qualify for the PGA TOUR through Q-School. Using simulation, we estimate the probabilities that Q-School correctly identifies high-skill golfers. We show that players with skill equivalent to the very best on the PGA TOUR would have high probabilities of qualifying, but others, equal in skill to many active PGA TOUR members, would have low odds of qualifying. We explore the impact of variations in Q-school structure on qualifying probabilities for players with different skill levels, but most of the variations that improve tournament efficiency are largely impractical.

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File URL: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jqas.2011.7.issue-4/1559-0410.1308/1559-0410.1308.xml?format=INT
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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports.

Volume (Year): 7 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 1-50

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:4:n:7
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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Hvide, H.K. & Kristiansen, E.G., 1999. "Risk Taking in Selection Contests," Papers 5-99, Tel Aviv.
  2. Jennifer Brown, 2011. "Quitters Never Win: The (Adverse) Incentive Effects of Competing with Superstars," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(5), pages 982-1013.
  3. Edward P. Lazear & Sherwin Rosen, 1979. "Rank-Order Tournaments as Optimum Labor Contracts," NBER Working Papers 0401, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Fu, Qiang & Lu, Jingfeng, 2009. "The beauty of "bigness": On optimal design of multi-winner contests," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 146-161, May.
  5. Ryvkin, Dmitry, 2010. "The selection efficiency of tournaments," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 206(3), pages 667-675, November.
  6. Sherwin Rosen, 1985. "Prizes and Incentives in Elimination Tournaments," NBER Working Papers 1668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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