IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/jqsprt/v7y2011i1n8.html

Socioeconomic Predictors of the 2010 FIFA World Cup

Author

Listed:
  • Imperiale-Hagerman Stephen

    (University of Georgia)

Abstract

A country's size in terms of population and economic status play a major role in the resources available to a national soccer team. Additionally, the national expectations for the team define what a successful result is. The purpose of this paper is to present a prediction for the 2010 Federation Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup based on socioeconomic variables. Building off of models presented by Johnson and Ali (2004) as well as Dyte and Clark (2000), new models are created and presented. First, a linear regression model accounts for the ratings and rankings of the nations participating. Then, the ratings are applied to a Poisson regression to predict the outcome for each of the 64 games in the World Cup. The results predict the tournament will be won by Brazil. The model was then subjected to back-testing using the 2006 World Cup tournament. The back-tested model ranked the eventual first, second and third place finishers higher than the FIFA official rankings. The paper then presents future directions for research and notes the rationale for omissions from the model.

Suggested Citation

  • Imperiale-Hagerman Stephen, 2011. "Socioeconomic Predictors of the 2010 FIFA World Cup," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:1:n:8
    DOI: 10.2202/1559-0410.1282
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1559-0410.1282
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1559-0410.1282?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raymond Stefani, 1997. "Survey of the major world sports rating systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(6), pages 635-646.
    2. D Dyte & S R Clarke, 2000. "A ratings based Poisson model for World Cup soccer simulation," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 51(8), pages 993-998, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leitner, Christoph & Zeileis, Achim & Hornik, Kurt, 2010. "Forecasting sports tournaments by ratings of (prob)abilities: A comparison for the EUROÂ 2008," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 471-481, July.
    2. Sebastián Cea & Guillermo Durán & Mario Guajardo & Denis Sauré & Joaquín Siebert & Gonzalo Zamorano, 2020. "An analytics approach to the FIFA ranking procedure and the World Cup final draw," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 286(1), pages 119-146, March.
    3. A K Suzuki & L E B Salasar & J G Leite & F Louzada-Neto, 2010. "A Bayesian approach for predicting match outcomes: The 2006 (Association) Football World Cup," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 61(10), pages 1530-1539, October.
    4. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Mantilla, Cesar, 2019. "Emotional expressions by sports teams: An analysis of World Cup soccer player portraits," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    5. Halicioglu Ferda, 2009. "Research on the Prediction of the likely Winners of the Euro 2008 Football Tournament," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-15, July.
    6. White, Mark H., 2021. "bwsTools: An R package for case 1 best-worst scaling," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    7. O'Leary, Daniel E., 2017. "Crowd performance in prediction of the World Cup 2014," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(2), pages 715-724.
    8. Gabel Alan & Redner Sidney, 2012. "Random Walk Picture of Basketball Scoring," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, March.
    9. Rómulo A. Chumacero, 2009. "Altitude or Hot Air?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 10(6), pages 619-638, December.
    10. Seungkyu Shin & Sebastian E Ahnert & Juyong Park, 2014. "Ranking Competitors Using Degree-Neutralized Random Walks," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(12), pages 1-13, December.
    11. Patrick Barrie, 2003. "A new sports ratings system: The tiddlywinks world ratings," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 361-372.
    12. S Lessmann & M-C Sung & J E V Johnson, 2011. "Towards a methodology for measuring the true degree of efficiency in a speculative market," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(12), pages 2120-2132, December.
    13. Andrés Ramírez Hassan & Johnatan Cardona Jim�nez, 2014. "Which team will win the 2014 FIFA World Cup? A Bayesian approach for dummies," Documentos de Trabajo de Valor Público 10898, Universidad EAFIT.
    14. Aleksei Y. Kondratev & Egor Ianovski & Alexander S. Nesterov, 2024. "How Should We Score Athletes and Candidates: Geometric Scoring Rules," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 72(6), pages 2507-2525, November.
    15. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2005. "Forecasting the Professional Team Sporting Events: Evidence from Euro 2000 and 2004 Football Tournaments," Industrial Organization 0508001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. P Dawson & B Morley & D Paton & D Thomas, 2009. "To bat or not to bat: An examination of match outcomes in day-night limited overs cricket," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1786-1793, December.
    17. del Corral, Julio & Prieto-Rodríguez, Juan, 2010. "Are differences in ranks good predictors for Grand Slam tennis matches?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 551-563, July.
    18. Kovalchik Stephanie Ann, 2016. "Is there a Pythagorean theorem for winning in tennis?," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 43-49, March.
    19. Corona Francisco & Horrillo Juan de Dios Tena & Wiper Michael Peter, 2017. "On the importance of the probabilistic model in identifying the most decisive games in a tournament," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 11-23, March.
    20. Groll Andreas & Schauberger Gunther & Tutz Gerhard, 2015. "Prediction of major international soccer tournaments based on team-specific regularized Poisson regression: An application to the FIFA World Cup 2014," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 11(2), pages 97-115, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:7:y:2011:i:1:n:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.