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Evaluating the ability of goalkeepers in English Premier League football

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  • Gelade Garry

    (Business Analytic Ltd, 1, Circus Lodge, Circus Road, St Johns Wood, London)

Abstract

This paper examines the performance of goalkeepers in the English Premier League. A commonly used metric to assess goalkeeper ability is the saves-to-shots ratio. It is shown that goalkeepers playing in weak teams have to defend against on-target shots that have a relatively high probability of scoring as compared to their counterparts in higher-performing teams. This tends to produce a downwards bias in the save-to-shots ratio of goalkeepers in weak teams, an effect which may lead to their ability being underestimated. A logistic regression model is used to adjust goalkeepers’ saves-to-shots ratios for differences in save difficulty. The adjusted ratio is more stable across seasons, suggesting that it is a more reliable estimate of true goalkeeper ability than the unadjusted ratio.

Suggested Citation

  • Gelade Garry, 2014. "Evaluating the ability of goalkeepers in English Premier League football," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 10(2), pages 279-286, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:10:y:2014:i:2:p:8:n:17
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2014-0004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bar-Eli, Michael & Azar, Ofer H. & Ritov, Ilana & Keidar-Levin, Yael & Schein, Galit, 2007. "Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 606-621, October.
    2. Oberstone Joel, 2010. "Comparing English Premier League Goalkeepers: Identifying the Pitch Actions that Differentiate the Best from the Rest," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
    3. Moschini, GianCarlo, 2004. "Nash equilibrium in strictly competitive games: live play in soccer," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 365-371, December.
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