IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/glecon/v15y2015i3p361-407n1.html

Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Canada: An Evidence from Time-Series Tests

Author

Listed:
  • Singh Tarlok

    (Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Griffith Business School, Griffith University, Nathan Campus, 170 Kessels Road, Brisbane, Queensland-4111, Australia)

Abstract

This study examines the effects of international trade and investment on output and tests the null hypothesis of Granger non-causality among trade, investment and economic growth in Canada. The long-run model is estimated using several single-equation and system estimators to assess the robustness of results across methodologies. The single-equation, OLSEG, GMM, DOLS, NLLS and FMOLS, estimates of the model provide consistent support for the positive and significant long-run effects of exports and investment on output. The ML system estimates cross-validate the cointegrating relationship and reinforce the positive effects of exports and investment and the negative effects of imports on output. The over-parameterized level-VAR estimates suggest unidirectional Granger-causality from exports, imports and investment each to output. The estimates of the model with structural breaks support the long-run relationship, though the evidence is not unambiguous ubiquitously across all the tests. The evidence supporting the positive and significant long-run effects overwhelms the evidence providing weak or no support for the effects of trade on output. The results underline the need for the acceleration of exports (and investment) to offset the demand-reducing effects of imports and escalate the altitudes of output and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Singh Tarlok, 2015. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth in Canada: An Evidence from Time-Series Tests," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 361-407, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:15:y:2015:i:3:p:361-407:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/gej-2014-0009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/gej-2014-0009
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/gej-2014-0009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrews, Donald W.K. & Kim, Jae-Young, 2006. "Tests for Cointegration Breakdown Over a Short Time Period," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 379-394, October.
    2. Andersson, Krister, 1990. "The U.S.-Canada free trade agreement: Who will be better off?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 693-713.
    3. Titus O. Awokuse, 2003. "Is the export‐led growth hypothesis valid for Canada?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 126-136, March.
    4. Costas Arkolakis & Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare, 2012. "New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 94-130, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jules Hugot and Camilo Umana-Dajud & Camilo Uma�a-Dajud, 2017. "Trade Costs and the Suez and Panama Canals," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-33.
    2. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2018. "What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-29.
    3. Yang Hu, 2023. "A review of Phillips‐type right‐tailed unit root bubble detection tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 141-158, February.
    4. Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2017. "Aggregating from Micro to Macro Patterns of Trade," NBER Working Papers 24051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Kazuko Kano & Takashi Kano & Kazutaka Takechi, 2012. "Nonparametric Identification and Estimation of the Number of Components in Multivariate Mixtures," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd12-246, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Redding, Stephen J. & Weinstein, David E., 2016. "A unified approach to estimating demand and welfare," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 67681, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    7. Martin Beraja, 2017. "Counterfactual Equivalence in Macroeconomics," 2017 Meeting Papers 1400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2016. "Trade and the Global Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(11), pages 3401-3438, November.
    9. Ambec, Stefan & Esposito, Federico & Pacelli, Antonia, 2024. "The economics of carbon leakage mitigation policies," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    10. Carluccio, Juan & Gautier, Erwan & Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2023. "Dissecting the impact of imports from low-wage countries on inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    11. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi & Roberto Robatto, 2019. "Cost of Inflation in Inventory Theoretical Models," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 206-226, April.
    12. Njike, Arnold, 2020. "Trade in value-added and the welfare gains of international fragmentation," MPRA Paper 100427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tiago Pereira, 2016. "The effect of developing countries' competition on regional labour markets in Portugal," GEE Papers 0058, Gabinete de Estratégia e Estudos, Ministério da Economia, revised Mar 2016.
    14. Ben Shepherd, 2021. "Effective Rates of Protection in a World With Non-Tariff Measures and Supply Chains: Evidence from ASEAN," Working Papers DP-2021-27, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    15. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Jung, Benjamin, 2012. "The home market effect, regional inequality, and intra-industry reallocations," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 33, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    16. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr, 2016. "The Trans-Pacific Partnership Deal (TPP): What Are the Economic Consequences for In- and Outsiders?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 16(04), pages 53-64, January.
    17. Foellmi, Reto & Hepenstrick, Christian & Torun, David, 2024. "Triangle inequalities in international trade: The neglected dimension," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    18. Fabian Knorre & Martin Wagner & Maximilian Grupe, 2021. "Monitoring Cointegrating Polynomial Regressions: Theory and Application to the Environmental Kuznets Curves for Carbon and Sulfur Dioxide Emissions," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-35, March.
    19. Ferdinando Monte & Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2018. "Commuting, Migration, and Local Employment Elasticities," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3855-3890, December.
    20. Liu, Chen & Ma, Xiao, 2018. "China's Export Surge and the New Margins of Trade," MPRA Paper 103970, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2020.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:15:y:2015:i:3:p:361-407:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.