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Promotion Carryover as a Missing-Data Problem

Listed author(s):
  • Holloway Garth J.

    (University of Reading, United Kingdom)

  • Aydogus Osman

    (Ege University, Turkey)

An important feature of agribusiness promotion programs is their lagged impact on consumption. Efficient investment in advertising requires reliable estimates of these lagged responses and it is desirable from both applied and theoretical standpoints to have a flexible method for estimating them. This note derives an alternative Bayesian methodology for estimating lagged responses when investments occur intermittently within a time series. The method exploits a latent-variable extension of the natural-conjugate, normal-linear model, Gibbs sampling and data augmentation. It is applied to a monthly time series on Turkish pasta consumption (1993:5-1998:3) and three, non-consecutive promotion campaigns (1996:3, 1997:3, 1997:10). The results suggest that responses were greatest to the second campaign, which allocated its entire budget to television media; that its impact peaked in the sixth month following expenditure; and that the rate of return (measured in metric tons additional consumption per thousand dollars expended) was around a factor of 20.

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Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization.

Volume (Year): 2 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (February)
Pages: 1-18

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:bjafio:v:2:y:2004:i:1:n:4
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  6. Donald J. Liu & Olan D. Forker, 1988. "Generic Fluid Milk Advertising, Demand Expansion, and Supply Response: The Case of New York City," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(2), pages 229-236.
  7. Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1996. "Modeling Multiple Adoption Decisions in a Joint Framework," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 547-557.
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