IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/bjafio/v2y2004i1n4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Promotion Carryover as a Missing-Data Problem

Author

Listed:
  • Holloway Garth J.

    (University of Reading, United Kingdom)

  • Aydogus Osman

    (Ege University, Turkey)

Abstract

An important feature of agribusiness promotion programs is their lagged impact on consumption. Efficient investment in advertising requires reliable estimates of these lagged responses and it is desirable from both applied and theoretical standpoints to have a flexible method for estimating them. This note derives an alternative Bayesian methodology for estimating lagged responses when investments occur intermittently within a time series. The method exploits a latent-variable extension of the natural-conjugate, normal-linear model, Gibbs sampling and data augmentation. It is applied to a monthly time series on Turkish pasta consumption (1993:5-1998:3) and three, non-consecutive promotion campaigns (1996:3, 1997:3, 1997:10). The results suggest that responses were greatest to the second campaign, which allocated its entire budget to television media; that its impact peaked in the sixth month following expenditure; and that the rate of return (measured in metric tons additional consumption per thousand dollars expended) was around a factor of 20.

Suggested Citation

  • Holloway Garth J. & Aydogus Osman, 2004. "Promotion Carryover as a Missing-Data Problem," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bjafio:v:2:y:2004:i:1:n:4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.degruyter.com/view/j/jafio.2004.2.1/jafio.2004.2.1.1053/jafio.2004.2.1.1053.xml?format=INT
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pritchett, James G. & Liu, Donald J. & Kaiser, Harry M., 1998. "Optimal Choice Of Generic Milk Advertising Expenditures By Media Outlet," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 23(01), July.
    2. Donald J. Liu & Olan D. Forker, 1988. "Generic Fluid Milk Advertising, Demand Expansion, and Supply Response: The Case of New York City," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(2), pages 229-236.
    3. Kinnucan, Henry W. & Chang, Hui-Shung (Christie) & Venkateswaran, Meenakshi, 1993. "Generic Advertising Wearout," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 61(03), December.
    4. Jeffrey H. Dorfman, 1996. "Modeling Multiple Adoption Decisions in a Joint Framework," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 547-557.
    5. Jeremy T. Benson & F. Jay Breidt & John R. Schroeter, 2002. "Television Advertising and Beef Demand: Bayesian Inference in a Random Effects Tobit Model," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 50(2), pages 201-219, July.
    6. Reberte, J. Carlos & Kaiser, Harry M. & Lenz, John E. & Forker, Olan D., 1996. "Generic Advertising Wearout: The Case Of The New York City Fluid Milk Campaign," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(02), December.
    7. Philip R. Vande Kamp & Harry M. Kaiser, 1999. "Irreversibility in Advertising-Demand Response Functions: An Application to Milk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 385-396.
    8. Ward, Ronald W. & Myers, Lester H., 1979. "Advertising Effectiveness and Coefficient Variation Over Time," Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 1.
    9. Chib, Siddhartha, 1992. "Bayes inference in the Tobit censored regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 79-99.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:bjafio:v:2:y:2004:i:1:n:4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.