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Promotion Carryover as a Missing-Data Problem


  • Holloway Garth J.

    (University of Reading, United Kingdom)

  • Aydogus Osman

    (Ege University, Turkey)


An important feature of agribusiness promotion programs is their lagged impact on consumption. Efficient investment in advertising requires reliable estimates of these lagged responses and it is desirable from both applied and theoretical standpoints to have a flexible method for estimating them. This note derives an alternative Bayesian methodology for estimating lagged responses when investments occur intermittently within a time series. The method exploits a latent-variable extension of the natural-conjugate, normal-linear model, Gibbs sampling and data augmentation. It is applied to a monthly time series on Turkish pasta consumption (1993:5-1998:3) and three, non-consecutive promotion campaigns (1996:3, 1997:3, 1997:10). The results suggest that responses were greatest to the second campaign, which allocated its entire budget to television media; that its impact peaked in the sixth month following expenditure; and that the rate of return (measured in metric tons additional consumption per thousand dollars expended) was around a factor of 20.

Suggested Citation

  • Holloway Garth J. & Aydogus Osman, 2004. "Promotion Carryover as a Missing-Data Problem," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-18, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bjafio:v:2:y:2004:i:1:n:4

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Reberte, J. Carlos & Kaiser, Harry M. & Lenz, John E. & Forker, Olan D., 1996. "Generic Advertising Wearout: The Case Of The New York City Fluid Milk Campaign," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 21(02), December.
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