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Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability

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  • Patrick Minford
  • David Meenagh
  • Bruce Webb

Abstract

Stochastic simulations are used on the Liverpool Model of the UK to assess the effect of UK euro entry on macroeconomic stability. Instability increases substantially, particularly for inflation and real interest rates. A key factor is the extent of the euro's instability against the dollar; by adopting a regional currency the UK imports this source of shocks, as well as losing its control of interest rates. The results are not highly sensitive to changes in assumptions about the degree of labour market flexibility, the use of fiscal policy, and increased convergence of monetary transmission. Copyright 2004 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Minford & David Meenagh & Bruce Webb, 2004. "Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 301-358, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:27:y:2004:i:3:p:301-358
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    Cited by:

    1. Stefano d'Addona & Ilaria Musumeci, 2013. "The British opt-out from the European Monetary Union: empirical evidence from monetary policy rules," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(23), pages 1783-1795, December.
    2. Vo Le & Patrick Minford, 2006. "Joining the European Monetary Union—Comparing First and Second Generation Open Economy Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 281-296, July.
    3. Sandeep Mazumder & Ryan Pahl, 2013. "What if the UK had Joined the Euro in 1999?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 447-470, July.
    4. Patrick Minford & Konstantinos Theodoridis & David Meenagh, 2009. "Testing a Model of the UK by the Method of Indirect Inference," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 265-291, April.

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