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“I Pay Enough Taxes Already!” Applying Economic Voting Models to Environmental Referendums

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  • Nicholas Bornstein
  • Philippe Thalmann

Abstract

Objectives. Models of economic voting have rarely been applied to referendum votes. We fill this gap by testing citizens' voting behavior on environmental policy in relation to their perception of the business cycle and general orientation toward politics. Thus, the study examines the personal, institutional, and economic determinants of vote choice on 36 environmental bills from 1983 to 2004 in Switzerland. Methods. We apply a logistic hierarchical model, where individual characteristics on Level 1 are nested within contextual determinants situated on Level 2. Results. We confirm the crucial importance of the individual‐level variables education, political affinity, car ownership, and urbanity. Classifying the electorate into five groups, using open‐ended survey questions about respondents' reasons for approval or dismissal of the bills, allows for finer hypotheses testing. We show that the individuals' positive perception of their personal current economic condition has a positive effect on the likelihood of supporting the proposals. In turn, we prove the negative, constraining effect of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions on approval rates. Conclusions. By applying economic voting models to referendum analyses we advance the understanding of citizens' vote choice on environmental ballots, we show the role of context, and we propose an original typology of voters' general orientation toward politics.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Bornstein & Philippe Thalmann, 2008. "“I Pay Enough Taxes Already!” Applying Economic Voting Models to Environmental Referendums," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1336-1355, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:89:y:2008:i:5:p:1336-1355
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-6237.2008.00580.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Philippe Thalmann, 2004. "The Public Acceptance of Green Taxes: 2 Million Voters Express Their Opinion," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 119(1_2), pages 179-217, April.
    2. MacKuen, Michael B. & Erikson, Robert S. & Stimson, James A., 1992. "Peasants or Bankers? The American Electorate and the U.S. Economy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 597-611, September.
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    4. Deacon, Robert T & Shapiro, Perry, 1975. "Private Preference for Collective Goods Revealed Through Voting on Referenda," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 65(5), pages 943-955, December.
    5. Daniel Halbheer & Sarah Niggli & Armin Schmutzler, 2006. "What Does it Take to Sell Environmental Policy? An Empirical Analysis of Referendum Data," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 33(4), pages 441-462, April.
    6. Kramer, Gerald H., 1971. "Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(1), pages 131-143, March.
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    1. Andrea Baranzini & Stefano Carattini, 2017. "Effectiveness, earmarking and labeling: testing the acceptability of carbon taxes with survey data," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 19(1), pages 197-227, January.
    2. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Maennig, Wolfgang & Mueller, Steffen Q., 2022. "The generation gap in direct democracy: Age vs. cohort effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Isabelle Stadelmann-Steffen & Clau Dermont, 2018. "The unpopularity of incentive-based instruments: what improves the cost–benefit ratio?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 37-62, April.
    4. Stephen Quinlan & Michael S. Lewis-Beck & Matt Qvortrup, 2025. "Forecasting Referendums: A Structural Model Predicting Adoption and Support in Irish Plebiscites 1968–2024," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 13.
    5. Bornstein, Nicholas & Lanz, Bruno, 2008. "Voting on the environment: Price or ideology? Evidence from Swiss referendums," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 430-440, October.
    6. Hensher, David A. & Li, Zheng, 2013. "Referendum voting in road pricing reform: A review of the evidence," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 186-197.

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