IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Exchange Rate Volatility


  • Basher A. Balg
  • Hugh Metcalf


This paper investigates the impact of the volatility of the underlying macroeconomic fundamentals on exchange rate volatility utilizing the bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results show that, in the long run the volatility of the money supply is the sole determinant, whereas in the short run overshooting is found. Copyright © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Basher A. Balg & Hugh Metcalf, 2010. "Modeling Exchange Rate Volatility," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-120, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:18:y:2010:i:1:p:109-120

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: link to full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 624-660, June.
    2. Lane, Philip R., 2001. "The new open economy macroeconomics: a survey," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 235-266, August.
    3. Annie Corbin, 2004. "Capital mobility and adjustment of the current account imbalances: a bounds testing approach to cointegration in 12 countries (1880-2001)," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(3), pages 257-276.
    4. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-248.
    5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    6. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November.
    7. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. G De Vita & A Abbott, 2004. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and US Exports: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 9(1), pages 69-78, March.
    10. Helena Marques & Hugh Metcalf, 2005. "What Determines Sectoral Trade in the Enlarged EU?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(2), pages 197-231, May.
    11. Annie Corbin, 2004. "Capital mobility and adjustment of the current account imbalances : a bounds testing approach to cointegration in 12 countries (1880-2001)," Post-Print hal-00153832, HAL.
    12. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
    13. Mah, Jai S., 2000. "An empirical examination of the disaggregated import demand of Korea--the case of information technology products," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 237-244.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Marilyne Huchet-Bourdon & Jane Korinek, 2011. "To What Extent Do Exchange Rates and their Volatility Affect Trade?," OECD Trade Policy Papers 119, OECD Publishing.
    2. Dengjun Zhang, 2015. "The trade effect of price risk: a system-wide approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1149-1167, May.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:18:y:2010:i:1:p:109-120. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.