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Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long-Horizon Allocations

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  • Gregory H. MacKinnon
  • Ashraf Al Zaman

Abstract

We examine how the predictability of real estate returns affects the risk of, and optimal allocations to, real estate for investors of differing investment horizons. Returns to direct real estate are mean reverting, and risk decreases with horizon. This is driven by a tendency for property transaction prices to overshoot inflation. Mean reversion in real estate returns is weaker than that of equities, resulting in real estate having similar risk to equities for long-term investors. However, optimal portfolios have large allocations to direct real estate at all horizons, and the allocation increases with horizon. Finally, we find that real estate investment trusts are a redundant asset class for investors with access to direct real estate as an asset class, but they do have a role in optimal allocations when direct property investment is not feasible. Copyright (c) 2009 American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory H. MacKinnon & Ashraf Al Zaman, 2009. "Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long-Horizon Allocations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 117-153.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:37:y:2009:i:1:p:117-153
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Martin Hoesli & Elias Oikarinen, 2012. "Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data," ERES eres2012_232, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    2. William Mingyan Cheung & James Chicheong Lei & Desmond Tsang, 2016. "Does Property Transaction Matter in the Price Discovery of Real Estate Markets?," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(1), pages 27-49.
    3. Nazlioglu, Saban & Gormus, N. Alper & Soytas, Uğur, 2016. "Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (REITs): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 168-175.
    4. David Ho & Kwame Addae-Dapaah & John Glascock, 2015. "International Direct Real Estate Risk Premiums in a Multi-Factor Estimation Model," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 52-85, July.
    5. Ranajit Kumar Bairagi, 2012. "The direct costs of raising external equity capital for US REIT IPOs," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(6), pages 538-562, September.
    6. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, March.
    7. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2016. "Consumption, wealth, stock and housing returns: Evidence from emerging markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, pages 562-578.
    8. Muhammad Najib Razali, 2011. "Portfolio Optimisation Model for Malaysian Property Market," ERES eres2011_131, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    9. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    10. S. Price & Dean Gatzlaff & C. Sirmans, 2012. "Information Uncertainty and the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Anomaly: Insights from REITs," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 250-274, January.
    11. Hoesli, Martin & Oikarinen, Elias, 2012. "Are REITs real estate? Evidence from international sector level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1823-1850.
    12. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2010. "1/N and long run optimal portfolios: results for mixed asset menus," Working Papers 2010-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    13. Walter Boudry & N. Coulson & Jarl Kallberg & Crocker Liu, 2013. "On Indexing Commercial Real Estate Properties and Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(4), pages 617-639, November.
    14. Hui-Na Lin & Wo-Chiang Lee, 2015. "Threshold Effects in the Relationships of REITs and Other Financial Securities in Developed Countries," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(3), pages 426-438, March.
    15. Paul M Anglin & Yanmin Gao, 2011. "Integrating Illiquid Assets into the Portfolio Decision Process," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 39(2), pages 277-311, June.
    16. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2011. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," ERES eres2011_63, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    17. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    18. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin, 2014. "Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 116-164, July.
    19. Mingyan Cheung & Chicheong Lei, 2014. "Does Property Transaction Matter in Price Discovery in Real Estate Markets? Evidence from International Firm Level Data," ERES eres2014_195, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    20. Sum, Vichet, 2014. "Dynamic effects of financial stress on the U.S. real estate market performance," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, pages 80-92.
    21. Ranajit Kumar Bairagi & William Dimovski, 2010. "The underpricing of US REIT IPOs: 1996--2010," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 233-248.

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