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Do interest rate controls work? Evidence from Kenya

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  • Emre Alper
  • Benedict Clements
  • Niko Hobdari
  • Rafel Moya Porcel

Abstract

This paper reviews the impact of interest rate controls in Kenya, introduced in September 2016. The intent of the controls was to reduce the cost of borrowing, expand access to credit, and increase the return on savings. However, we find that the law on interest rate controls has had the opposite effect of what was intended. Specifically, it has led to a collapse of credit to micro‐, small‐, and medium‐sized enterprises; shrinking of the loan book of the small banks; and reduced financial intermediation. Because of their adverse effects on bank lending, we estimate that the interest rate controls have reduced economic growth by ¼–¾ percentage points on an annual basis. We also show that interest rate caps reduced the signaling effects of monetary policy. These suggest that (1) the adverse effects could largely be avoided if the ceiling was high enough to facilitate lending to higher‐risk borrowers and (2) alternative policies could be preferable to address concerns about the high cost of credit.

Suggested Citation

  • Emre Alper & Benedict Clements & Niko Hobdari & Rafel Moya Porcel, 2020. "Do interest rate controls work? Evidence from Kenya," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 910-926, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:rdevec:v:24:y:2020:i:3:p:910-926
    DOI: 10.1111/rode.12675
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    2. Ghosh, Saibal, 2022. "Financial inclusion and banking stability: Does interest rate repression matter?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. World Bank, 2020. "Kenya Economic Update, April 2020," World Bank Publications - Reports 33673, The World Bank Group.
    4. Thornton, John & Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis, 2023. "Bank regulations and surges and stops in credit: Panel evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Alier Maker Ghai, 2022. "Interest Rates and Microfinance Performance in Eastern Africa," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 11(1), pages 24-35.
    6. Edmund Mallinguh & Zeman Zoltan, 2022. "Financial Institution Type and Firm-Related Attributes as Determinants of Loan Amounts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-12, March.
    7. Herlianto, Anung EC & Sofilda, Elenora & Hamzah, Muhammad & Ginting, Ari Mulianta, 2020. "The Effect of Market Intervention Policy through Capping Rate on Credit Growth," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(3), pages 15-25.
    8. Ryszard Kowalski & Grzegorz Wałęga, 2022. "Regulation of Usury: Justification, Consequences, and Some Lessons from Polish Experience," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 2, pages 57-73.
    9. Mr. Etibar Jafarov & Mr. Rodolfo Maino & Mr. Marco Pani, 2019. "Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again," IMF Working Papers 2019/211, International Monetary Fund.

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