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Changes in the Quantum of Russian Fertility During the 1980s and Early 1990s

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  • Nicholas B. Barkalov

Abstract

To investigate whether Russia's dramatic fertility changes pre‐ and post‐Soviet times were due primarily to tempo effects, as has been argued recently, or to quantum effects, this study standardizes for factors that distort conventional fertility indexes. A time series spanning 1978–93 of period parity‐progression ratios for the Russian Federation is constructed applying the PADTFR technique, which takes into account age, parity, and time elapsed since the birth of the previous child, to data from the Russian micro census of February 1994 (2.8 million maternity histories). Both the fertility rise of the 1980s and the fertility fall of the early 1990s are found to be primarily due to changes in the probability of a second birth. The impact of tempo on the conventional TFR is significant, but of relatively minor magnitude in comparison to changes in the quantum of fertility. The social and economic context in which the fertility change took place is described.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas B. Barkalov, 2005. "Changes in the Quantum of Russian Fertility During the 1980s and Early 1990s," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 31(3), pages 545-556, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:31:y:2005:i:3:p:545-556
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00084.x
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    1. World Bank, 2002. "World Development Indicators 2002," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13921, April.
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    1. Leonardo Menchini & Sheila Marnie, 2007. "Demographic Challenges and the Implications for Children in CEE/CIS," Papers inwopa07/47, Innocenti Working Papers.
    2. Jan M. Hoem & Cornelia Muresan & Marika Jalovaara, 2013. "Recent fertility patterns of Finnish women by union status," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(14), pages 409-420.
    3. Joshua R. Goldstein & Tomáš Sobotka & Aiva Jasilioniene, 2009. "The end of 'lowest-low' fertility? (with supplementary materials)," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-029, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. Eleonora Mussino & Alyson A. van Raalte, 2008. "Fertility of migrants: a comparative study between Italy and Russia," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2008-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Brainerd, Elizabeth, 2010. "The Demographic Transformation of Post-Socialist Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 015, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    6. Jan M. Hoem & Cornelia Mureşan & Mihaela Hărăguş, 2013. "Recent features of cohabitational and marital fertility in Romania," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Elizabeth Brainerd, 2010. "The Demographic Transformation of Post-Socialist Countries: Causes, Consequences, and Questions," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2010-015, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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