IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/popdev/v27y2001i2p323-339.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The World's Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi‐State Population Projections by Educational Attainment

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Lurz
  • Anne Goujon

Abstract

This research note presents the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi‐state population projection. The educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials are estimated for 13 world regions, and alternative scenarios are presented to the year 2030. One of these scenarios assumes constant educational transition rates and the other assumes that all regions reach Northern American levels of enrollment rates by 2030. The strong momentum or, as the case may be, inertia in the transformation of the educational composition of a population, seen in the results, arises because education is mostly acquired at a young age. The sex bias in the educational composition, especially evident in some developing countries, is unlikely to disappear soon. China has made remarkable progress in improving educational enrollment and as a consequence by 2030 is expected to have more educated people of working age than Europe and Northern America together.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Lurz & Anne Goujon, 2001. "The World's Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi‐State Population Projections by Educational Attainment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(2), pages 323-339, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:27:y:2001:i:2:p:323-339
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00323.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00323.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2001.00323.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nehru, Vikram & Swanson, Eric & Dubey, Ashutosh, 1993. "A new database on human capital stock : sources, methodology and results," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1124, The World Bank.
    2. Jejeebhoy, Shireen J., 1995. "Women's Education, Autonomy, and Reproductive Behaviour: Experience from Developing Countries," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290339.
    3. Romer, Paul M., 1990. "Human capital and growth: Theory and evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 251-286, January.
    4. Kyriacou, George A., 1991. "Level and Growth Effects of Human Capital: A Cross-Country Study of the Convergence Hypothesis," Working Papers 91-26, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bourguignon, François & Bussolo, Maurizio, 2013. "Income Distribution in Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1383-1437, Elsevier.
    2. Andrea Kunnert, 2017. "Bildungsstruktur der österreichischen Bevölkerung und Haushalte bis 2040," WIFO Working Papers 538, WIFO.
    3. Riikka Shemeikka & Veijo Notkola & Harri Siiskonen, 2005. "Fertility decline in North-Central Namibia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 13(4), pages 83-116.
    4. repec:ilo:ilowps:411196 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Istvan Majer & Ralph Stevens & Wilma Nusselder & Johan Mackenbach & Pieter Baal, 2013. "Modeling and Forecasting Health Expectancy: Theoretical Framework and Application," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(2), pages 673-697, April.
    6. Yuko Nozaki, 2017. "The effects of higher education on childrearing fertility behavior in Japan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(5), pages 653-669, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Miho Shirotori & Bolormaa Tumurchudur & Olivier Cadot, 2010. "Revealed Factor Intensity Indices at the Product Level," UNCTAD Blue Series Papers 44, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    2. Angel de la Fuente & Antonio Ciccone, 2003. "Human capital in a global and knowledge-based economy," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 562.03, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    3. Aurora Teixeira & Natércia Fortuna, 2003. "Human Capital, Innovation Capability and Economic Growth," FEP Working Papers 131, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    4. Ahuja,Vinod Kumar & Filmer,Deon P. & Ahuja, Vinod*Filmer, Deon, 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
    5. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong-Wha, 1993. "International comparisons of educational attainment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 363-394, December.
    6. María Jesús Freire-Serén, 2001. "Human capital accumulation and economic growth," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 25(3), pages 585-602, September.
    7. M. Shahe Emran & Fenohasina Maret-Rakotondrazaka & Stephen C. Smith, 2014. "Education and Freedom of Choice: Evidence from Arranged Marriages in Vietnam," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 481-501, April.
    8. Wößmann, Ludger, 2000. "Specifying Human Capital: A Review, Some Extensions, and Development Effects," Kiel Working Papers 1007, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Ruth A. Judson, "undated". "Do Low Human Capital Coefficients Make Sense? A Puzzle and Some Answers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1996-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 04 Dec 2019.
    10. Benos, Nikos & Zotou, Stefania, 2014. "Education and Economic Growth: A Meta-Regression Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 669-689.
    11. de la Fuente, Angel, 1997. "The empirics of growth and convergence: A selective review," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 23-73, January.
    12. Abdul Shaban & Shahbaz Khan, 2023. "Cultural diversity, human capital, and regional economic growth in India," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 973-991, June.
    13. Les OXxley & Ttrinh Le & John Gibson, 2008. "Measuring Human Capital: Alternative Methods and International Evidence," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 24, pages 283-344.
    14. Aurora A. C. Teixeira, 2004. "Measuring aggregate human capital in Portugal. An update up to 2001," FEP Working Papers 152, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    15. Ludger Wößmann, 2003. "Specifying Human Capital," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 239-270, July.
    16. Aurora A.C. Teixeira & Natércia Fortuna, 2006. "Human capital, trade and long-run productivity. Testing the technological absorption hypothesis for the Portuguese economy, 1960-2001," FEP Working Papers 226, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    17. O'Neill, Donal, 1995. "Education and Income Growth: Implications for Cross-Country Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1289-1301, December.
    18. Trinh Le & John Gibson & Les Oxley, 2005. "Measures of human capital: A review of the literature," Treasury Working Paper Series 05/10, New Zealand Treasury.
    19. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Cooray, Arusha & Hassan, Gazi Mainul, 2011. "Growth effects of education with the extreme bounds analysis: some evidence from Asia," MPRA Paper 32279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ruth A. Judson, 1996. "Do low human capital coefficients make sense? A puzzle and some answers," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:27:y:2001:i:2:p:323-339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0098-7921 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.