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Uncovering Unobserved Economy: A General Equilibrium Characterization

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  • Amedeo Argentiero
  • Carlo Andrea Bollino

Abstract

This paper builds a three-sector DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model, considering explicitly the interactions among regular, underground and criminal sectors. We generated quarterly data for unobserved variables for Italian economy over the sample 1974:01–2011:02, through Monte Carlo simulations, and we found that underground economy is about 20 per cent of GDP, whereas criminal economy is 11 per cent. The dynamic behavior of the model shows that (1) regular production has a greater relative volatility with respect to unobserved production, (2) an efficient law enforcement activity is able to weaken unobserved activities and (3) unobserved sectors' variables exhibit a negative correlation with the corresponding ones of regular economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Amedeo Argentiero & Carlo Andrea Bollino, 2015. "Uncovering Unobserved Economy: A General Equilibrium Characterization," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(2), pages 306-338, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:metroe:v:66:y:2015:i:2:p:306-338
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/meca.12072
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Friedrich Schneider & Gilberto Turati, 2013. "Money Laundering as a Financial Sector Crime. A New Approach to Measurement, with an Application to Italy," Working papers 018, Department of Economics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    2. Giles, David E A, 1999. "Measuring the Hidden Economy: Implications for Econometric Modelling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 370-380, June.
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    7. Guerino Ardizzi & Carmelo Petraglia & Massimiliano Piacenza & Gilberto Turati, 2013. "L’economia non osservata fra evasione e crimine: una rivisitazione del Currency Demand Approach con una applicazione al contesto italiano," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, issue 1, pages 229-269, January-M.
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    Cited by:

    1. Argentiero, Amedeo & Cerqueti, Roy & Sabatini, Fabio, 2018. "Does social capital explain the Solow residual? A DSGE approach," MPRA Paper 87100, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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