IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/manchs/v78y2010i6p725-738.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Black‐Market Exchange Rate Versus The Official Rate: Which Rate Fosters The Adjustment Speed In The Monetarist Model?

Author

Listed:
  • MOHSEN BAHMANI‐OSKOOEE
  • SCOTT W. HEGERTY
  • ALTIN TANKU

Abstract

Many less developed countries have currency controls, which can lead to black‐market trade and cause distortions in the exchange market. We test the flexible‐price monetary model for 25 less developed countries, using both official and black‐market exchange rates. We find that the model is supported in the long run, particularly when black‐market rates are used. Measuring the speed of convergence to equilibrium, we find that it is often higher in the black‐market specification, implying greater efficiency. This could offer justification for exchange‐rate unification, particularly in Latin America.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty & Altin Tanku, 2010. "The Black‐Market Exchange Rate Versus The Official Rate: Which Rate Fosters The Adjustment Speed In The Monetarist Model?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(6), pages 725-738, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:78:y:2010:i:6:p:725-738
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02164.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02164.x
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-9957.2009.02164.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicholas Sarantis, 1994. "The monetary exchange rate model in the long run: An empirical investigation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 130(4), pages 698-711, December.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Koi Nyen Wong & Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "The effects of exchange rate variability on Malaysia's disaggregated electrical exports," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(2), pages 154-169, May.
    4. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    5. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1999. "Monetary Models of Dollar/Yen/Euro Nominal Exchange Rates: Dead or Undead?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 655-659, November.
    6. Apostolos Serletis & Periklis Gogas, 2007. "The Feldstein‐Horioka puzzle in an ARIMA framework," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 194-210, August.
    7. van den Berg, Hendrik & Jayanetti, Sanath C., 1993. "A novel test of the monetary approach using black market exchange rates and the Johansen-Juselius cointegration method," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 413-418.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kara, Orhan, 2000. "Exchange rate overshooting in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 89-93, July.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    10. Sanjeev Gupta, 1980. "An application of the monetary approach to black market exchange rates," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(2), pages 235-252, June.
    11. George Tawadros, 2001. "The predictive power of the monetary model of exchange rate determination," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 279-286.
    12. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Export‐led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
    13. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    14. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    15. Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August.
    16. John F. O. Bilson, 1978. "A Dynamic Model of Devaluation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 194-209, May.
    17. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Claire Economidou & Gour Gobinda Goswami, 2005. "How sensitive are Britain's inpayments and outpayments to the value of the British pound," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(5), pages 455-467, October.
    20. M.O. Odedokun, 1996. "Black Market Exchange Rate Behaviour in African Countries: Evidence From an Eclectic Model," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 8(2), pages 1-19.
    21. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    22. Glauco De Vita & Khine S. Kyaw, 2008. "Determinants of capital flows to developing countries: a structural VAR analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(4), pages 304-322, September.
    23. McNown, Robert & Wallace, Myles S, 1994. "Cointegration Tests of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for Three High-Inflation Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(3), pages 396-411, August.
    24. James E. Payne, 2008. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: evidence from the Caribbean region," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(6), pages 501-511, October.
    25. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Tanku, Altin, 2006. "Black market exchange rate, currency substitution and the demand for money in LDCs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 249-263, October.
    26. Irfan Civcir, 2004. "The Long-Run Validity of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for a High Inflation Country and Misalignment : The Case of Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 84-100, July.
    27. Bill Francis & Iftekhar Hasan & James Lothian, 2001. "The monetary approach to exchange rates and the behaviour of the Canadian dollar over the long run," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 475-481.
    28. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
    29. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2007. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, November.
    30. M.O. Odedokun, 1996. "Monetary model of black market exchange rate determination: evidence from African countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 23(4), pages 31-49, September.
    31. Hassan Mohammadi & Murat Cak & Demet Cak, 2008. "Wagner's hypothesis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(1), pages 94-106, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ilir Miteza & Altin Tanku, 2020. "Exchange rate changes and money demand in Albania: a nonlinear ARDL analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 619-633, November.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jia Xu, 2013. "The J-Curve and Japan--China commodity trade," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 13-28, February.
    3. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2019. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: A bootstrap panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 209-224.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amr Hosny, 2015. "Commodity trade between EU and Egypt and Orcutt’s hypothesis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 1-24, February.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Amr Hosny, 2014. "Price and income elasticities: evidence from commodity trade between the U.S. and Egypt," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 561-574, December.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty & Amr Hosny, 2015. "Exchange-rate volatility and commodity trade between the E.U. and Egypt: evidence from 59 industries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(1), pages 109-129, February.
    4. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Javed Iqbal & Muhammad Muzammil, 2017. "Pakistan-EU Commodity Trade: Is there Evidence of J-Curve Effect?," Global Economy Journal (GEJ), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 1-8, June.
    5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott Hegerty, 2013. "Currency fluctuations and the French–U.S. trade balance: evidence from 118 industries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 40(2), pages 237-257, May.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ruixin Zhang, 2014. "Is there J-Curve effect in the commodity trade between Korea and rest of the world?," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 227-250, August.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Jungho Baek & Scott W. Hegerty, 2016. "GARCH-based versus traditional measures of exchange-rate volatility: evidence from Korean industry trade," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 103-136.
    8. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Industry trade and exchange-rate fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. and Chile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 619-626.
    9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Xi, Dan, 2012. "Exchange rate volatility and domestic consumption: Evidence from Japan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 326-335.
    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 243-260.
    11. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2019. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: A bootstrap panel data analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 209-224.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2015. "Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility and Commodity Trade between U.S. and Singapore," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 5, pages 22-40, February.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ruixin Zhang, 2015. "Koreas Inpayments and Outpayments with the Rest of the World: Is There Room for Currency Manipulation?," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 12-32, January.
    14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2011. "How Sensitive is U.S.-Canadian Trade to the Exchange Rate: Evidence from Industry Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 53-91, February.
    15. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Dan Xi, 2014. "Economic Uncertainty, Monetary Uncertainty, and the Demand for Money: Evidence From Asian Countries," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 16-28, June.
    16. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bolhassani, Marzieh & Hegerty, Scott W., 2010. "The effects of currency fluctuations and trade integration on industry trade between Canada and Mexico," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(4), pages 212-223, December.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rajarshi Mitra, 2009. "The J-Curve at the industry level: evidence from U.S.-India trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1520-1529.
    19. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2012. "J-Curve: Singapore versus her Major Trading Partners," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 31(4), pages 515-522, December.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2014. "U.S.-Singapore Commodity Trade and the J-Curve," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(10), pages 1473-1484, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:78:y:2010:i:6:p:725-738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/semanuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.