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An econometric analysis of dividends and share repurchases by US firms

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  • Alok Bhargava

Abstract

The paper analyses longitudinal Compustat data on dividend payments and share repurchases of over 2000 US industrial firms by using 2‐yearly averages for the period 1992–2007. First, dynamic auto‐regressive models for dividends and share repurchases were estimated by maximum likelihood to yield consistent and efficient estimates. Second, because firms pay dividends at different rates, comprehensive dynamic and static random‐effects models for dividends were estimated. Third, models were estimated for share repurchases and the interrelationships between dividends and repurchases were investigated, tackling endogeneity issues. The results showed that dividend decisions are likely to precede those regarding share repurchases, and higher dividend payments decreased the magnitudes of repurchases; the effects of repurchases on dividends were generally insignificant.

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  • Alok Bhargava, 2010. "An econometric analysis of dividends and share repurchases by US firms," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 173(3), pages 631-656, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:173:y:2010:i:3:p:631-656
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2010.00644.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alok Bhargava & J. D. Sargan, 2006. "Estimating Dynamic Random Effects Models From Panel Data Covering Short Time Periods," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 1, pages 3-27, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001. "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
    3. Feng Gu & Weimin Wang, 2005. "Intangible Assets, Information Complexity, and Analysts' Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(9-10), pages 1673-1702.
    4. Skinner, Douglas J., 2008. "The evolving relation between earnings, dividends, and stock repurchases," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(3), pages 582-609, March.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:1:p:313-333 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely, 2002. "Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1649-1684, August.
    7. Brav, Alon & Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Michaely, Roni, 2005. "Payout policy in the 21st century," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 483-527, September.
    8. Alok Bhargava, 2006. "Identification and Panel Data Models with Endogenous Regressors," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 3, pages 49-60, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Richard A. Kronmal, 1993. "Spurious Correlation and the Fallacy of the Ratio Standard Revisited," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 156(3), pages 379-392, May.
    10. Alok Bhargava, 2006. "Modelling the Health of Filipino Children," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 11, pages 153-168, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
    12. Banyi, Monica L. & Dyl, Edward A. & Kahle, Kathleen M., 2008. "Errors in estimating share repurchases," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 460-474, September.
    13. von Eije, Henk & Megginson, William L., 2008. "Dividends and share repurchases in the European Union," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 347-374, August.
    14. Neyman, Jerzy, 1952. "Lectures and Conferences on Mathematical Statistics and Probability," USDA Miscellaneous 327287, United States Department of Agriculture.
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    Cited by:

    1. Black, Bernard & de Carvalho, Antonio Gledson & Khanna, Vikramaditya & Kim, Woochan & Yurtoglu, Burcin, 2014. "Methods for multicountry studies of corporate governance: Evidence from the BRIKT countries," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 230-240.
    2. Leila Davis & Shane McCormack, 2021. "Industrial stagnation and the financialization of nonfinancial corporations," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 459-491, December.
    3. Grosman, Anna & Amore, Mario Daniele, 2021. "Share Repurchases and Board Independence," MPRA Paper 109811, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. von Eije, Henk & Goyal, Abhinav & Muckley, Cal B., 2014. "Does the information content of payout initiations and omissions influence firm risks?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 222-229.
    5. Onali, Enrico & Ginesti, Gianluca, 2015. "Sins of Omission in Value Relevance Empirical Studies," MPRA Paper 64265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bhargava, Alok, 2014. "Firms’ fundamentals, macroeconomic variables and quarterly stock prices in the US," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(2), pages 241-250.
    7. Driver, Ciaran & Grosman, Anna & Scaramozzino, Pasquale, 2020. "Dividend policy and investor pressure," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 559-576.

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