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Exploration of associations between governance and economics and country level foot‐and‐mouth disease status by using Bayesian model averaging

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  • R. B. Garabed
  • W. O. Johnson
  • J. Gill
  • A. M. Perez
  • M. C. Thurmond

Abstract

Summary. Using Bayesian model averaging, we quantify associations of governance and economic health with country level presence of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) and estimate the probability of the presence of FMD in each country from 1997 to 2005. The Bayesian model averaging accounted for countries’ previous FMD status and other possible confounders, as well as uncertainty about the ‘true’ model, and provided accurate predictions (90% specificity and 80% sensitivity). This model represents a novel approach to predicting FMD, and other conditions, on a global scale and in identifying important risk factors that can be applied to global policy and allocation of resources for disease control.

Suggested Citation

  • R. B. Garabed & W. O. Johnson & J. Gill & A. M. Perez & M. C. Thurmond, 2008. "Exploration of associations between governance and economics and country level foot‐and‐mouth disease status by using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(3), pages 699-722, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:171:y:2008:i:3:p:699-722
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00534.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2005. "Governance matters IV : governance indicators for 1996-2004," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3630, The World Bank.
    2. Kuklinski, James H. & Stanga, John E., 1979. "Political Participation and Government Responsiveness: The Behavior of California Superior Courts," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1090-1099, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Martie Gillen & Hongwei Yang & Hyungsoo Kim, 2020. "Health Literacy and Difference in Current Wealth Among Middle-Aged and Older Adults," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 281-299, June.

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