IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jorssa/v167y2004i3p501-517.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simultaneous modelling of multiple traffic safety performance indicators by using a multivariate generalized linear mixed model

Author

Listed:
  • Trevor C. Bailey
  • Paul J. Hewson

Abstract

Summary. Traffic safety in the UK is one of the increasing number of areas where central government sets targets based on ‘outcome‐focused’ performance indicators (PIs). Judgments about such PIs are often based solely on rankings of raw indicators and simple league tables dominate centrally published analyses. There is a considerable statistical literature examining health and education issues which has tended to use the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) to address variability in the data when drawing inferences about relative performance from headline PIs. This methodology could obviously be applied in contexts such as traffic safety. However, when such models are applied to the fairly crude data sets that are currently available, the interval estimates generated, e.g. in respect of rankings, are often too broad to allow much real differentiation between the traffic safety performance of the units that are being considered. Such results sit uncomfortably with the ethos of ‘performance management’ and raise the question of whether the inference from such data sets about relative performance can be improved in some way. Motivated by consideration of a set of nine road safety performance indicators measured on English local authorities in the year 2000, the paper considers methods to strengthen the weak inference that is obtained from GLMMs of individual indicators by simultaneous, multivariate modelling of a range of related indicators. The correlation structure between indicators is used to reduce the uncertainty that is associated with rankings of any one of the individual indicators. The results demonstrate that credible intervals can be substantially narrowed by the use of the multivariate GLMM approach and that multivariate modelling of multiple PIs may therefore have considerable potential for introducing more robust and realistic assessments of differential performance in some contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Trevor C. Bailey & Paul J. Hewson, 2004. "Simultaneous modelling of multiple traffic safety performance indicators by using a multivariate generalized linear mixed model," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(3), pages 501-517, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:167:y:2004:i:3:p:501-517
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.0apm7.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.0apm7.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1467-985X.2004.0apm7.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chib, Siddhartha, 2001. "Markov chain Monte Carlo methods: computation and inference," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 57, pages 3569-3649, Elsevier.
    2. Chib, Siddhartha & Winkelmann, Rainer, 2001. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis of Correlated Count Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 428-435, October.
    3. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    4. M. Stone, 2002. "How not to measure the efficiency of public services (and how one might)," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(3), pages 405-434, October.
    5. David J. Spiegelhalter & Paul Aylin & Nicola G. Best & Stephen J. W. Evans & Gordon D. Murray, 2002. "Commissioned analysis of surgical performance using routine data: lessons from the Bristol inquiry," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 165(2), pages 191-221, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul Hewson & Keming Yu, 2008. "Quantile regression for binary performance indicators," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(5), pages 401-418, September.
    2. Nils Gutacker & Andrew Street, 2015. "Multidimensional performance assessment using dominance criteria," Working Papers 115cherp, Centre for Health Economics, University of York.
    3. Peter C. Smith & Andrew Street, 2012. "Concepts and Challenges in Measuring the Performance of Health Care Organizations," Chapters, in: Andrew M. Jones (ed.), The Elgar Companion to Health Economics, Second Edition, chapter 32, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Russell B. Millar, 2009. "Comparison of Hierarchical Bayesian Models for Overdispersed Count Data using DIC and Bayes' Factors," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 962-969, September.
    5. Tom Brijs & Dimitris Karlis & Filip Van den Bossche & Geert Wets, 2007. "A Bayesian model for ranking hazardous road sites," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 170(4), pages 1001-1017, October.
    6. Nicholas Longford & D. B. Rubin, 2006. "Performance assessment and league tables. Comparing like with like," Economics Working Papers 994, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shinya Sugawara & Yasuhiro Omori, 2017. "An Econometric Analysis of Insurance Markets with Separate Identification for Moral Hazard and Selection Problems," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 50(3), pages 473-502, October.
    2. Yoshihiro Ohtsuka, 2018. "Large Shocks and the Business Cycle: The Effect of Outlier Adjustments," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 143-178, April.
    3. Song, Zefang & Song, Xinyuan & Li, Yuan, 2023. "Bayesian Analysis of ARCH-M model with a dynamic latent variable," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 47-62.
    4. Takahashi, Makoto & Watanabe, Toshiaki & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2016. "Volatility and quantile forecasts by realized stochastic volatility models with generalized hyperbolic distribution," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 437-457.
    5. Nima Nonejad, 2013. "Time-Consistency Problem and the Behavior of US Inflation from 1970 to 2008," CREATES Research Papers 2013-25, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    6. Azam, Kazim & Pitt, Michael, 2014. "Bayesian Inference for a Semi-Parametric Copula-based Markov Chain," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1051, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    7. Nicholas Longford & D. B. Rubin, 2006. "Performance assessment and league tables. Comparing like with like," Economics Working Papers 994, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    8. Ishihara, Tsunehiro & Omori, Yasuhiro, 2012. "Efficient Bayesian estimation of a multivariate stochastic volatility model with cross leverage and heavy-tailed errors," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3674-3689.
    9. P. Girardello & Orietta Nicolis & Giovanni Tondini, 2002. "Comparing conditional variance models: Theory and empirical evidence," Departmental Working Papers 2002-08, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    10. Ishihara, Tsunehiro & Omori, Yasuhiro & Asai, Manabu, 2016. "Matrix exponential stochastic volatility with cross leverage," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 331-350.
    11. Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Jun Yu, 2006. "Multivariate Stochastic Volatility," Microeconomics Working Papers 22058, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    12. Yuko Onishi & Yasuhiro Omori, 2016. "Bayesian Estimation of Entry Games with Multiple Players and Multiple Equilibria," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 418-440, December.
    13. Marco Alfò & Giovanni Trovato, 2004. "Semiparametric Mixture Models for Multivariate Count Data, with Application," CEIS Research Paper 51, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
    14. Kim, Jae-Young, 2014. "An alternative quasi likelihood approach, Bayesian analysis and data-based inference for model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 132-145.
    15. Sofia Anyfantaki & Antonis Demos, 2016. "Estimation and Properties of a Time-Varying EGARCH(1,1) in Mean Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 293-310, February.
    16. Yu, Jun, 2005. "On leverage in a stochastic volatility model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 165-178, August.
    17. Koji Miyawaki & Yasuhiro Omori & Akira Hibiki, 2011. "Panel Data Analysis Of Japanese Residential Water Demand Using A Discrete/Continuous Choice Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 365-386, September.
    18. Xu, Ke-Li, 2020. "Inference of local regression in the presence of nuisance parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 218(2), pages 532-560.
    19. Huang, Shirley J. & Yu, Jun, 2010. "Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2259-2272, November.
    20. Abanto-Valle, Carlos A. & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Garrafa-Aragón, Hernán B., 2021. "Stochastic Volatility in Mean: Empirical evidence from Latin-American stock markets using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and Riemann Manifold HMC methods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 272-286.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jorssa:v:167:y:2004:i:3:p:501-517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rssssea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.