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The Impact of a Customs Union between Turkey and the EU on Turkey's Exports to the EU

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  • FELICITAS NOWAK-LEHMANN
  • DIERK HERZER
  • INMACULADA MARTINEZ-ZARZOSO
  • SEBASTIAN VOLLMER

Abstract

This article investigates Turkey's sectoral trade flows to the EU based on panel data from the period 1988 to 2002. Turkey's 16 most important export sectors are analysed. Emphasis is placed on the role of price competition, EU protection and transport costs in the export trade between Turkey and the EU. The empirical model used is an extended version of the gravity model. This study is also a contribution to the current discussion of whether Turkey should be granted full EU membership or a privileged partnership with the EU, which for Turkey would mean improved access to the EU market for its products, among other benefits. Our investigation focuses on the latter policy outcome: the impact of deepening the customs union between Turkey and the EU and applying the common agricultural policy (CAP) to Turkish agricultural exports. To this end, the impact of the 1996 customs union covering most industrial goods and processed agricultural goods, is evaluated on a sectoral level. We also perform simulations to quantify the impact of the potential inclusion of agricultural goods, as well as iron and steel and products thereof, into the full customs union between Turkey and the EU which is still to come. Copyright (c) 2007 The Author(s); Journal compilation (c) 2007 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann & Dierk Herzer & Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Sebastian Vollmer, 2007. "The Impact of a Customs Union between Turkey and the EU on Turkey's Exports to the EU," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45, pages 719-743, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jcmkts:v:45:y:2007:i::p:719-743
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, May.
    2. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    3. Shang-Jin Wei, 1996. "Intra-National versus International Trade: How Stubborn are Nations in Global Integration?," NBER Working Papers 5531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Inmaculada Martinez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2004. "Economic and Geographical Distance: Explaining Mercosur Sectoral Exports to the EU," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 291-314, July.
    5. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso & Felicitas Nowak-Lehmann D., 2003. "Augmented gravity model: An empirical application to Mercosur- European trade flows," International Trade 0309019, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Cited by:

    1. Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "The Effect of the European Union Customs Union on the Balance of Trade in Turkey," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 52(4), pages 219-232, November.
    2. Aysan, Ahmet Faruk & Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim, 2007. "Investigation on the Determinants of Turkish Export-Boom in 2000s," MPRA Paper 5493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Christopher S. P. Magee, 2016. "Trade creation, trade diversion, and the general equilibrium effects of regional trade agreements: a study of the European Community–Turkey customs union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(2), pages 383-399, May.
    4. Shanping Yang & Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2013. "A Panel Data Analysis of Trade Creation and Trade Diversion Effects: The case of ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA)," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 224, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Craig Macphee & Peter Cook & Wanasin Sattayanuwat, 2013. "Transportation and The International Trade of Eastern and Southern Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 81(2), pages 225-239, June.
    6. repec:kap:empiri:v:45:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10663-017-9369-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Türkcan, Kemal, 2014. "Investigating the Role of Extensive Margin, Intensive Margin, Price and Quantity Components on Turkey’s Export Growth during 1998-2011," MPRA Paper 53292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Özler, Sule & Taymaz, Erol & YIlmaz, Kamil, 2009. "History Matters for the Export Decision: Plant-Level Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 479-488, February.
    9. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1220-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Luis Marcelo Florensa & Laura Márquez-Ramos & María Luisa Recalde & María Victoria Barone, 2014. "Does economic integration increase trade margins? Empirical evidence from LAIAs countries," Working Papers 2014/05, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    11. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:55:y:2017:i:3:p:419-431 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tomasz Brodzicki & Stanislaw Uminski, 2013. "International trade relations of enterprises established in Poland's regions: gravity model panel estimation," Working Papers 1301, Instytut Rozwoju, Institute for Development.
    13. Kavallari, Aikaterini & Maas, Sarah & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2008. "Explaining German imports of olive oil: evidence from a gravity model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44217, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Rifat Kamasak & Meltem Yavuz, 2014. "Organisational routines may not be effective for the emerging market firms," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 0200686, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    15. Luis Florensa & Laura Márquez-Ramos & María Recalde, 2015. "The effect of economic integration and institutional quality of trade agreements on trade margins: evidence for Latin America," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(2), pages 329-351, May.
    16. Berument, M. Hakan & Dincer, N. Nergiz & Mustafaoglu, Zafer, 2014. "External income shocks and Turkish exports: A sectoral analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 476-484.
    17. Kavallari, Aikaterini & Maas, Sarah & Schmitz, P. Michael, 2010. "Evidence on Euromediterranean Trade Integration: The Case of German Olive Oil Imports," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 59(1).
    18. Kristjánsdóttir, Helga, 2008. "Exports under the Flicker of the Northern Lights," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    19. repec:ags:gjagec:145221 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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