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Smoothing the Fiscal Costs of Population Ageing in Australia: Effects on Intergenerational Equity and Social Welfare

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  • ROSS GUEST

Abstract

This paper applies an overlapping generations model in order to evaluate the case for smoothing the fiscal costs associated with population ageing. The motivation is the establishment in Australia of the Future Fund which acts to smooth the tax burden over time. The conclusion is that tax smoothing of the order implied by the Future Fund yields a gain in social welfare in the order of 1.0 per cent in equivalent annual increases in GDP. All current generations of workers and retired workers are worse off, with middle‐aged workers the worst affected, but future generations are better off and by larger magnitudes.

Suggested Citation

  • Ross Guest, 2008. "Smoothing the Fiscal Costs of Population Ageing in Australia: Effects on Intergenerational Equity and Social Welfare," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(265), pages 177-192, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:84:y:2008:i:265:p:177-192
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2008.00461.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
    2. Gordon, Roger H & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1996. "Why Is Capital So Immobile Internationally? Possible Explanations and Implications for Capital Income Taxation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1057-1075, December.
    3. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    4. Chamley, Christophe, 1986. "Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 607-622, May.
    5. Nick Davis & Richard Fabling, 2002. "Population Ageing and the Efficiency of Fiscal Policy in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/11, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ross Guest, 2006. "Population ageing, fiscal pressure and tax smoothing: a CGE application to Australia," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 27(2), pages 183-203, June.
    8. Tracy Foertsch, 2004. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Stylized Tax Cuts in an Intertemporal Computable General Equilibrium Model: Technical Paper 2004-11," Working Papers 15914, Congressional Budget Office.
    9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
    10. Heal, G., 1998. "Valuing the Future: Economic Theory and Sustainability," Papers 98-10, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sameera Awawda & Mohammad Abu-Zaineh & Bruno Ventelou, 2019. "Who Bears the Burden of Universal Health Coverage? An Assessment of Alternative Financing Policies Using an Overlapping generations General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers 1335, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    2. Robert A Buckle & Amy A Cruickshank, 2013. "The Requirements for Long-Run Fiscal Sustainability," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/20, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Ross Guest, 2013. "Intergenerational Smoothing of New Zealand’s Future Fiscal Costs," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/12, New Zealand Treasury.

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