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Forecasting Australian Marriage Rates

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  • JOHN McDONALD
  • PETER MORGAN

Abstract

The paper discusses the problem of modelling demographic variables for the purpose of forecasting. Two empirical model selection procedures are applied to suggest final form forecasting equations for Australian marriage rates. The suggested models are then assessed by comparing their post‐sample forecast performance with that of univariate ARMA‐type models of marriage rates which are regarded as approximations to marriage rate final equation models. In this instance the ARM A models are preferred for forecasting purposes. The properties of the ARM A model forecasts are then examined and the modelling strategy is contrasted with the regression method used by Withers.

Suggested Citation

  • JOHN McDONALD & PETER MORGAN, 1981. "Forecasting Australian Marriage Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 57(1), pages 47-57, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:57:y:1981:i:1:p:47-57
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1981.tb01699.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Glenn A. Withers, 1979. "Economic Influences upon Marriage Behaviour: Australia, 1954–1984," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(2), pages 118-126, June.
    2. Joao Saboia, 1974. "Modeling and forecasting populations by time series: The Swedish case," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 11(3), pages 483-492, August.
    3. Alan Freiden, 1974. "The United States Marriage Market," NBER Chapters, in: Marriage, Family, Human Capital, and Fertility, pages 34-56, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    5. repec:bla:ecorec:v:55:y:1979:i:149:p:118-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nelson, Charles R, 1975. "Rational Expectations and the Predictive Efficiency of Economic Models," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 48(3), pages 331-343, July.
    7. Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
    8. Freiden, Alan, 1974. "The United States Marriage Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(2), pages 34-53, Part II, .
    9. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    10. John McDonald, 1979. "A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 16(4), pages 575-601, November.
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