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The Evolution of the Phillips Curve: A Modern Time Series Viewpoint

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  • CLIVE W. J. GRANGER
  • YONGIL JEON

Abstract

Phillips' (1958) original curve involves a nonlinear relationship between inflation and unemployment. We consider how his original results change due to updated theoretic and empirical studies, increased computer power, enlarged datasets, increases in data frequency and developed time series econometric models. In the linear models, there was weak causation from unemployment to inflation. Rather than using any of the many nonlinear models that are now available, we adopt a time-varying parameter linear model as their convenient proxy, which empirically supports Phillips' use of nonlinear model form and causation, but the strength of this result is much weaker in recent periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Clive W. J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2011. "The Evolution of the Phillips Curve: A Modern Time Series Viewpoint," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 78(309), pages 51-66, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:78:y:2011:i:309:p:51-66
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0335.2009.00839.x
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:cml:moneta:v:iii:y:2015:i:1:p:25-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Carlos A. Medel, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 25-69, january-j.
    3. Carlos Medel, 2017. "Forecasting Chilean inflation with the hybrid new keynesian Phillips curve: globalisation, combination, and accuracy," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 20(3), pages 004-050, December.
    4. Medel, Carlos A., 2015. "Forecasting Inflation with the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve: A Compact-Scale Global VAR Approach," MPRA Paper 67081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    6. Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Lisa Rodano, 2015. "On the conditional distribution of euro area inflation forecast," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1027, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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