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Estimating Chinese Trade Relationships with the Silk Road Countries

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  • E. Mine Cinar
  • Joseph Johnson
  • Katherine Geusz

Abstract

In this paper we discuss the extent to which countries in the former Silk Road regions are either reaching or failing to reach their trading potential with China. We estimate a gravity model of trade using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, and estimate trade potential using in-sample, out-of-sample and counterfactual approaches. We compare trade potential using these three methods for Silk Road country trades with China. Next, we compare the estimated trade potential to actual trade, and find that most Silk Road countries are underperforming in their trade with China. However, trade performance against potential improved for most countries over the years 1990–2013. Our results suggest that China's former Silk Road trading partners have yet to realize the full potential benefits of China's economic growth but that the gap may be narrowing.

Suggested Citation

  • E. Mine Cinar & Joseph Johnson & Katherine Geusz, 2016. "Estimating Chinese Trade Relationships with the Silk Road Countries," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 24(1), pages 85-103, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:24:y:2016:i:1:p:85-103
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sidong Zhao & Yiran Yan & Jing Han, 2021. "Industrial Land Change in Chinese Silk Road Cities and Its Influence on Environments," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-30, July.
    2. Zhanarys RAIMBEKOV & Bakyt SYZDYKBAYEVA & Zhibek RAKHMETULINA & Darima ZHENSKHAN, 2018. "The Effectiveness Of Logistics Development And Its Impact On The Economies Of The Countries Along The Silk Road Passing Through Kazakhstan," Transport Problems, Silesian University of Technology, Faculty of Transport, vol. 13(4), pages 127-142, December.
    3. Chaoqun Zhan & Hanxi Wang & Chenxue Hou, 2024. "Does Belt and Road Initiative attract Cross‐Border M&As from other countries?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 1916-1942, May.
    4. Shujaat Abbas, 2018. "Free Trade Agreements and International Trade Flow of Pakistan: the Gravity Modelling Approach," Journal Global Policy and Governance, Transition Academia Press, vol. 7(2), pages 71-84.
    5. Yu, Linhui & Zhao, Dan & Niu, Haixia & Lu, Futao, 2020. "Does the belt and road initiative expand China's export potential to countries along the belt and road?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Zhu, Jing & Liu, Xingyu & Cao, Lijuan, 2025. "The Belt and Road Initiative and China's diversifying food imports: A perspective on the "Five-pronged approach"," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    7. Abbas Shujaat & Waheed Abdul, 2018. "Import Determinants and Potential Markets: A Panel Data Gravity Modelling Analysis for Bahrain," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, April.

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