Demographic Change and Asian Dynamics: Social and Political Implications

This article describes the demographic change and its social and political implications in East and South‐East Asia with a trajectory up to 2050. It selectively touches on inequalities, migration, social policy, and international security. In the course of this exercise, I present two hypotheses: one relating to the formation of the new middle class, and the other relating to the geriatric peace argument. The first hypothesis posits that when the growing inequalities in terms of per capita income aggravate the sense of happiness among the low‐ and middle‐income strata as contrasted to high‐income strata, the formation of a new middle class becomes more difficult. The second hypothesis posits that when the aging population carries a large demographic weight, it tends to be transformed into strong political voice, which is, in turn, translated into larger government spending on social policy items often accompanied by a likely decline in the defense expenditure budget. These hypotheses paint a provocative picture of East and South‐East Asia in the next four decades, especially in the wake of the deepening economic difficulties prevailing over the entire globe. I present these hypotheses for further conceptual elaboration and empirical analysis.