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Economic Freedom and Presidential Elections: A Bayesian Spatial Probit Hierarchical Modeling Approach

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  • Donald J. Lacombe
  • Timothy Shaughnessy

Abstract

There is a growing consensus that spatial effects can help to explain electoral outcomes. Additionally, the concept of economic freedom is also correlated with many different economic outcomes. This paper combines these two ideas using a Bayesian hierarchical spatial probit econometric model. Hierarchical models have a long history in the Bayesian literature and allow for the estimation of Level 1 (county) and Level 2 (state) variables. In this study, we use county‐level data on county‐level votes for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election and control for state‐level economic freedom using a newly developed Bayesian hierarchical spatial probit model. The results indicate that state‐level economic freedom contributed positively to Donald Trump's vote at the county level.

Suggested Citation

  • Donald J. Lacombe & Timothy Shaughnessy, 2025. "Economic Freedom and Presidential Elections: A Bayesian Spatial Probit Hierarchical Modeling Approach," American Journal of Economics and Sociology, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(3), pages 497-502, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajecsc:v:84:y:2025:i:3:p:497-502
    DOI: 10.1111/ajes.12616
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James P. LeSage, 2014. "What Regional Scientists Need to Know about Spatial Econometrics," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 44(1), pages 13-32, Spring.
    2. Joshua C. Hall & Donald J. Lacombe & Timothy M. Shaughnessy, 2019. "Economic Freedom And Income Levels Across U.S. States: A Spatial Panel Data Analysis," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 40-49, January.
    3. Donald J. Lacombe & Miguel Flores, 2017. "A hierarchical SLX model application to violent crime in Mexico," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 58(1), pages 119-134, January.
    4. Zach Raff & Andrew Swanson & Danielle Zanzalari, 2024. "Do Political Leaders Impact Economic Freedom at the Local Level? Evidence from Close Elections," Public Finance Review, , vol. 52(5), pages 610-642, September.
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