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Econometric estimation of a global spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology

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  • My wish K. Maredia
  • Richard Ward
  • Derek Byerlee

Abstract

An econometric approach using international and national yield trial data is employed to estimate a spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology. The global spillover matrix is estimated based on international yield trial data from 1979–80 to 1987–88, that include 195 international trial locations and 209 wheat varieties. The locations were classified across countries using the CIMMYT's wheat megaenvironment system and varieties were classified by both their environmental and institutional origin. The model gave good explanatory power and confirmed the location specificity hypothesis, at least, for the varieties developed by national programs (NARS). The spillover matrix shows that NARS varieties developed in the home' environment generally perform better on average than varieties developed in other megaenvironments. Also, the matrix is not symmetric. CIMMYT varieties perform better on average in irrigated and high rainfall environments than NARS varieties developed for these environments. The yield advantage of CIMMYT varieties in many test megaenvironments indicates the potential of CIMMYT varieties to spill‐over to these test megaenvironments. Results also indicate that national programs are efficient in selecting from among imported technologies. Analysis of international data is complemented by the analysis of country‐level data for Pakistan and Kenya that confirms the above results. The country‐level analysis, however, indicates that CIMMYT germplasm does not do so well in some sub‐environments, such as the irrigated short‐duration environment. The results of the spillover matrix have implications for the design of crop breeding programs both at the national and international levels. Information provided by the spillover matrix can be utilized by national programs to deploy their resources more efficiently by following a mixed strategy of direct importation of technology in some environments and local development of technologies in other environments which are unique to the country.

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  • My wish K. Maredia & Richard Ward & Derek Byerlee, 1996. "Econometric estimation of a global spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 14(3), pages 159-173, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:agecon:v:14:y:1996:i:3:p:159-173
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1574-0862.1996.tb00411.x
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    1. John P. Brennan, 1989. "Spillover Effects of International Agricultural Research: CIMMYT‐based Semi‐Dwarf Wheats in Australia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 3(4), pages 323-332, December.
    2. Davis, Jeffrey S. & Oram, Peter A. & Ryan, James G., 1987. "Assessment of Agricultural Research Priorities: An International Perspective," Monographs, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, number 118048.
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    6. Brennan, John P., 1989. "Spillover effects of international agricultural research: CIMMYT-based semi-dwarf wheats in Australia," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 3(4), pages 323-332, December.
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    4. Maredia, Mywish K. & Byerlee, Derek, 2000. "Efficiency of research investments in the presence of international spillovers: wheat research in developing countries," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Takeshima, Hiroyuki & Nasir, Abdullahi Mohammed, 2017. "The role of the locations of public sector varietal development activities on agricultural productivity: Evidence from northern Nigeria:," NSSP working papers 42, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    6. Traxler, Greg & Byerlee, Derek, 2001. "Linking technical change to research effort: an examination of aggregation and spillovers effects," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 235-246, March.
    7. Andersen, Matthew A., 2019. "Knowledge productivity and the returns to agricultural research: a review," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(2), April.
    8. Nedumaran, S. & Bantilan, M.C.S. & Gupta, S.K. & Irshad, A. & Davis, J.S., 2015. "Potential Welfare Benefit of Millets Improvement Research to Inform Decision Making: Multi country- Economic Surplus model approach," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 230224, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Maredia, Mywish K., 1998. "The Economics Of Biosafety: Implications For Biotechnology In Developing Countries," Staff Paper Series 11768, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    10. Moschini, GianCarlo & Lapan, Harvey E. & Sobolevsky, Andrei, 2000. "Trading Technology As Well As Final Products: Roundup Ready Soybeans And Welfare Effects In The Soybean Complex," Transitions in Agbiotech: Economics of Strategy and Policy, June 24-25, 1999, Washington, D.C. 26002, Regional Research Project NE-165 Private Strategies, Public Policies, and Food System Performance.
    11. Hiroyuki Takeshima, 2019. "Geography of plant breeding systems, agroclimatic similarity, and agricultural productivity: evidence from Nigeria," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 50(1), pages 67-78, January.
    12. Alston, Julian M., 2002. "Spillovers," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 46(3), pages 1-32.
    13. Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M. & Ruttan, Vernon W., 2010. "The Economics of Innovation and Technical Change in Agriculture," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 939-984, Elsevier.
    14. Mausch, Kai & Chiwaula, L. & Irshad, A. & Bantilan, Ma Cynthia S. & Silim, S. & Siambi, M., 2013. "Strategic Breeding Investments for Legume Expansion: Lessons Learned from the Comparison of Groundnut and Pigeonpea," 2013 Conference (57th), February 5-8, 2013, Sydney, Australia 152168, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
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