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Assessing the Impact of New US Tariffs on Global Trade, Taking Its Intra-Annual Dynamics into Account

Author

Listed:
  • Andrey Gnidchenko

    (Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting; Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences; HSE University)

Abstract

The paper proposes a formalised approach to adjusting forecasts of world trade growth for 2025, factoring in its intra-annual dynamics and changes in effective US import tariffs. The proposed approach stands out in considering the adaptive capabilities for trade flow redistribution across countries (based on the experience of rerouted China's exports), as well as the scale of excess US imports prior to the tariffs coming into effect. A review is conducted of international organisations' forecasts of world trade during the period from April to August 2025. Based on data available at different points in time, the approach allows the production of five versions of the world trade dynamics forecast for 2025. The estimates of the growth rate of world trade range from 1% as of April to 2.4% as of August 2025. During 2025, international organisations adjusted their forecasts in close alignment with the estimates obtained.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrey Gnidchenko, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of New US Tariffs on Global Trade, Taking Its Intra-Annual Dynamics into Account," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 84(4), pages 85-100, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:journl:v:84:y:2025:i:4:p:85-100
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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