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Global growth: drivers and post-pandemic prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriela Nodari
  • Daniel Rees
  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul

Abstract

As the global economy emerges from the disruptions of the Covid-19 pandemic, attention is turning to growth prospects. We project growth over the next two decades by modelling supply-side drivers at the country and industry levels for 33 advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis suggests that, on pre-pandemic labour productivity growth trends, the global economy would grow by roughly 2.7% per year, driven by EMEs. This outcome is subject to a degree of uncertainty. We quantify the growth impact of three scenarios: persistent pandemic-induced structural changes, a housing market-induced recession and a green energy transition. Our analysis underscores the importance of structural reforms and policies to reinvigorate the supply-side drivers of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriela Nodari & Daniel Rees & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Global growth: drivers and post-pandemic prospects," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2203b
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert C. Feenstra & Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer, 2015. "The Next Generation of the Penn World Table," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3150-3182, October.
    2. Bolton, Patrick & Kacperczyk, Marcin, 2021. "Do investors care about carbon risk?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 517-549.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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