IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bic/journl/v10y2010i2p63-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estonia's potential growth revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Rasmus Kattai

    () (Research Department, Esti Pank)

Abstract

There have been several data revisions to output statistics in Estonia during the past six years as methodologies have been harmonised. These changes are significant enough to require corrections to the earlier understanding of Estonia’s potential economic growth rate. In this paper the latest data vintage from 2009 is used to estimate Estonia’s potential output growth and output gap. The production function approach that has been used shows that the gap varies quite extensively, ranging from –8% in 1999 to +8% in 2007, while the average potential growth rate in 1997–2009 was around 6%. The macro model simulations expect the potential growth rate to fall in the future. The fall in the marginal productivity of production inputs makes growth slow to about 4–5% in the next five years, if there are no additional shocks to the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Kattai, 2010. "Estonia's potential growth revisited," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 63-78, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:63-78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://biceps.org/assets/docs/bje/Katai.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Gábor Pula, 2003. "Capital Stock Estimation in Hungary: A Brief Description of Methodolgy and Results," MNB Working Papers 2003/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    3. Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
    4. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 683, OECD Publishing.
    5. Rasmus Kattai, 2005. "EMMA - A Quarterly Model of the Estonian Economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-12, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Dec 2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential output; potential growth; output gap; production function;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:63-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lelde Jakobsone). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/biceplv.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.