IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bic/journl/v10y2010i2p63-78.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estonia's potential growth revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Rasmus Kattai

    (Research Department, Esti Pank)

Abstract

There have been several data revisions to output statistics in Estonia during the past six years as methodologies have been harmonised. These changes are significant enough to require corrections to the earlier understanding of Estonia’s potential economic growth rate. In this paper the latest data vintage from 2009 is used to estimate Estonia’s potential output growth and output gap. The production function approach that has been used shows that the gap varies quite extensively, ranging from –8% in 1999 to +8% in 2007, while the average potential growth rate in 1997–2009 was around 6%. The macro model simulations expect the potential growth rate to fall in the future. The fall in the marginal productivity of production inputs makes growth slow to about 4–5% in the next five years, if there are no additional shocks to the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Rasmus Kattai, 2010. "Estonia's potential growth revisited," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 63-78, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:63-78
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/1406099X.2010.10840479
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Stefan Bergheim, 2008. "Long-Run Growth Forecasting," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-77680-2, December.
    3. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    4. David Haugh & Patrice Ollivaud & David Turner, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Consequences of Banking Crises in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 683, OECD Publishing.
    5. Susanto Basu & Miles S. Kimball, 1997. "Cyclical Productivity with Unobserved Input Variation," NBER Working Papers 5915, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
    7. Gábor Pula, 2003. "Capital Stock Estimation in Hungary: A Brief Description of Methodolgy and Results," MNB Working Papers 2003/7, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    8. Bernadette Biatour & Geert Bryon & Chantal Kegels, 2007. "Working Paper 03-07 - Capital services and total factor productivity measurements : impact of various methodologies for Belgium," Working Papers 0703, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
    9. Rasmus Kattai, 2005. "EMMA - A Quarterly Model of the Estonian Economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-12, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Dec 2005.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rasmus Kattai, 2010. "Potential output and the output gap in Estonia - a macro model based evalutaion," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-03, Bank of Estonia, revised 11 Feb 2010.
    2. Lindé, Jesper & Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks´ Macro Models," Working Paper Series 323, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Rasmus Kattai, 2010. "Credit risk model for the Estonian banking sector," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2010-01, Bank of Estonia, revised 04 Feb 2010.
    4. Anand, Rahul & Prasad, Eswar, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation under Incomplete Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 5137, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    5. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 67-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2007. "Total Factor Productivity and Monetary Policy: Evidence from Conditional Volatility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 131-152, July.
    7. Bordo, Michael D. & Haubrich, Joseph G., 2010. "Credit crises, money and contractions: An historical view," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, January.
    8. Levine, Oliver & Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2021. "Finance and productivity growth: Firm-level evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 91-107.
    9. Pancrazi, Roberto & Vukotic, Marija, 2012. "Technology Persistence and Monetary Policy," Economic Research Papers 270536, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    10. P. Halmai & V. Vásáry, 2011. "Crisis and economic growth in the EU," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 61(4), pages 465-485, December.
    11. Edward S. Knotek & Stephen J. Terry, 2009. "How will unemployment fare following the recession?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 94(Q III), pages 5-33.
    12. Chatterjee, Santanu, 2005. "Capital utilization, economic growth and convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2093-2124, December.
    13. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    14. Jim Malley & Anton Muscatelli & Ulrich Woitek, 1999. "Real Business Cycles or Sticky Prices? The Impact of Technology Shocks on US Manufacturing," Working Papers 1999_15, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    15. Lindé, J. & Smets, F. & Wouters, R., 2016. "Challenges for Central Banks’ Macro Models," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2185-2262, Elsevier.
    16. Ouyang, Min, 2009. "The scarring effect of recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 184-199, March.
    17. Andrew G. Haldane & Arthur E. Turrell, 2019. "Drawing on different disciplines: macroeconomic agent-based models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 39-66, March.
    18. Ríos-Rull, José-Víctor & Schorfheide, Frank & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina & Kryshko, Maxym & Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül, 2012. "Methods versus substance: Measuring the effects of technology shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(8), pages 826-846.
    19. Malley, James R. & Muscatelli, V. Anton & Woitek, Ulrich, 2005. "Real business cycles, sticky wages or sticky prices? The impact of technology shocks on US manufacturing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 745-760, April.
    20. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1999. "Resuscitating real business cycles," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 14, pages 927-1007, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    potential output; potential growth; output gap; production function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bic:journl:v:10:y:2010:i:2:p:63-78. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Zasova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/biceplv.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.