IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bdy/modfin/v3y2025i3p66-111id318.html

Modelling volatility spillovers between prices of petroleum and stock sector indices: A multivariate GARCH comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Miramir Bagirov

  • Cesario Mateus

Abstract

This study compares four multivariate GARCH approaches in modelling bilateral return and volatility spillovers between petroleum prices and self-constructed stock sector indices of net petroleum exporters (Canada and Saudi Arabia) and net petroleum importers (the United States and China). The estimates are subsequently used to quantify optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios and to evaluate the effectiveness of the resulting hedging strategies. The outputs point to the presence of heterogeneous volatility interdependencies, which are more evident for Canada and the United States. The optimal weight of petroleum is greater in portfolios comprising stock sector indices of Saudi Arabia and China, which also provide lower hedging costs. Time-varying conditional correlations, portfolio weights, and hedge ratios exhibit considerable variations, particularly during turbulent periods. Finally, the hedging strategies generated from the VAR-DCC-GARCH specification result in the greatest reduction, although not substantial, of risks for portfolios involving stock sector indices of all countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Miramir Bagirov & Cesario Mateus, 2025. "Modelling volatility spillovers between prices of petroleum and stock sector indices: A multivariate GARCH comparison," Modern Finance, Modern Finance Institute, vol. 3(3), pages 66-111.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdy:modfin:v:3:y:2025:i:3:p:66-111:id:318
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mf-journal.com/article/view/318
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malik, Farooq & Ewing, Bradley T., 2009. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and equity sector returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 95-100, June.
    2. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    3. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wisnowan Hendy Saputra & Dedy Dwi Prastyo & Kartika Fithriasari, 2025. "Systemic Risk Modeling with Expectile Regression Neural Network and Modified LASSO," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-28, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vincenzo Candila & Salvatore Farace, 2018. "On the Volatility Spillover between Agricultural Commodities and Latin American Stock Markets," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-16, October.
    2. Sarwar, Suleman & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Waheed, Rida & Dastgerdi, Hamidreza Ghorbani, 2019. "Volatility spillovers and hedging: Evidence from Asian oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 479-488.
    3. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2018. "New DCC analyses of return transmission, volatility spillovers, and optimal hedging among oil futures and oil equities in oil-producing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 1202-1217.
    4. Sarwar, Suleman & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Anwar, Awais & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2019. "The importance of oil assets for portfolio optimization: The analysis of firm level stocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 217-234.
    5. Roy, Rudra Prosad & Sinha Roy, Saikat, 2017. "Financial contagion and volatility spillover: An exploration into Indian commodity derivative market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 368-380.
    6. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks’ stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the United States experience," Post-Print hal-02960571, HAL.
    7. Olson, Eric & J. Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "The relationship between energy and equity markets: Evidence from volatility impulse response functions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 297-305.
    8. Ehouman, Yao Axel, 2020. "Volatility transmission between oil prices and banks' stock prices as a new source of instability: Lessons from the United States experience," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 198-217.
    9. Abid, Ilyes & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2019. "Transmission of shocks and contagion from U.S. to MENA equity markets: The role of oil and gas markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2020. "Correlation and spillover effects between the US and international banking sectors: New evidence and implications for risk management," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Anas Eisa Abdelkreem Mohammed & Henry Mwambi & Bernard Omolo, 2024. "Time-Varying Correlations between JSE.JO Stock Market and Its Partners Using Symmetric and Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation Models," Stats, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, July.
    12. Basher, Syed Abul & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "Hedging emerging market stock prices with oil, gold, VIX, and bonds: A comparison between DCC, ADCC and GO-GARCH," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 235-247.
    13. Tule, Moses K. & Ndako, Umar B. & Onipede, Samuel F., 2017. "Oil price shocks and volatility spillovers in the Nigerian sovereign bond market," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 57-65.
    14. Pedro Raffy Vartanian, 2020. "Volatility transmission between commodities and Ibovespa in the period 2000–2016: Is there a possibility of diversification?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 483-501, May.
    15. Moses K. Tule & Umar B. Ndako & Samuel F. Onipede, 2017. "Oil price shocks and volatility spillovers in the Nigerian sovereign bond market," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 57-65, November.
    16. LAJILI, Oualid, 2013. "Transmission de la volatilité entre le marché du pétrole et les marchés financiers des pays producteurs [Volatility transmission among the oil market and the financial markets of oil-producing countries]," MPRA Paper 86624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2018. "Return transmission and asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil futures and oil equities: New DCC-MEGARCH analyses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 167-185.
    18. Souček, Michael & Todorova, Neda, 2013. "Realized volatility transmission between crude oil and equity futures markets: A multivariate HAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 586-597.
    19. Cui, Xueting & Zhu, Shushang & Sun, Xiaoling & Li, Duan, 2013. "Nonlinear portfolio selection using approximate parametric Value-at-Risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2124-2139.
    20. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "U.S. shale oil production and WTI prices behaviour," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 12-19.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdy:modfin:v:3:y:2025:i:3:p:66-111:id:318. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Adam Zaremba (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://mf-journal.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.